washington business
Roughly — it ’ s the right word — roughly a year has passed since the Covid-19 pandemic transformed our way of doing business , of doing life . There ’ s no need to dwell on the last twelve months of masks , social distancing , shuttered restaurants and bars , travel restrictions , dark theaters , and desolate downtowns . No one will soon forget 2020 .
Now , merely months after vaccines became available , arriving as the winter resurgence of the coronavirus spiked caseloads , hospitalizations and deaths , we begin to glimpse recovery .
The unique nature of the pandemic recession makes a strong bounce-back likely .
“ This is not a normal economic contraction ; it was manmade ,” says Matthew Gardner , chief economist for Windermere Real Estate , “ Because of that , the recovery can be quicker .”
For many , however , recovery comes too late . The recession landed hardest on sectors employing a lot of low-wage workers whose jobs will not return quickly , if ever .
The Boston Consulting Group estimates that nationally economic activities representing about 46 % of consumption — think housing , utilities and financial services — were unaffected “ and never dipped .” Another group , affected by lockdowns but not by social distancing , including durable goods , clothing and autos and representing about 16 % of consumption , came back strongly after the lockdowns ended . But for the hardest-hit group , about 38 % of U . S . consumption , which BCG labeled “ vaccine dependent ,” the recovery comes late and with uncertainty .
That ’ s a fair approximation of the Washington experience . Managers , professionals and other office workers adapted quickly . The technology sector thrived , as locked-down households shopped , worked , consumed entertainment , and networked from home . Some of those changed behaviors will become permanent and change the shape of the recovery .
The vaccine-dependent businesses , those in hospitality and service sectors including restaurants , theaters , arts groups , hotels , salons and gyms , saw sales and revenues collapse . Many didn ’ t survive . For those that did , business-as-usual depends on customers ’ confidence that it ’ s safe to reengage . Small businesses without reserves or the technology to move to a virtual presence have been particularly disadvantaged , says Patrick Jones ,
At A Glance executive director of The Institute for Public Policy & Economic Analysis at Eastern Washington University .
No , the pandemic didn ’ t change everything . It did cause the future to arrive ahead of schedule .
Economic Recovery Dashboard www . commerce . wa . gov / datadashboard /
the pandemic as an accelerant
Although the contraction had disparate impacts , the pandemic spurred Washingtonians from all sectors to demonstrate their capacity for innovation , resilience , and discipline . Nearly half of businesses responding to a year-end 2020 AWB Employer Survey said their operations in the post-pandemic world will be different than they were a year ago . The changes most likely to be permanent : employees working remotely and increased automation .
28 association of washington business