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Columbia-Snake River Irrigators Association Opinion Memorandum
DATE: Fall 2025 TO:
FROM: SUBJECT:
Northwest Production Agriculture Industry And Elected Representatives
Darryll Olsen, Ph. D., Board Rep., CSRIA The Market Is Smarter Than You
Growing concerns expressed by Production Agriculture members and Industry groups toward new federal administration tariffs are well founded. This concern exacerbates existing supply and demand issues already at play within the U. S. economy.
The U. S. Federal Reserve Bank via the National Bureau of Economic Research( May 2024) pegged the previous Trump Administration Tariffs in 2018-19, as reducing all U. S. net welfare( GDP value) by 3 %, and stock-financial markets by $ 4.12 trillion( firm equity value). Ag Production sales were hit by about 30-50 %, for various sectors during 2017-2019, using the USDA-NASS data( roughly $ 11 billion).
Across the broader spectrum of all goods and services, the value in threatening new, or more, tariffs will yield unpredictable policy results- nor will they punish the“ evil” Chinese Communists. Thus far, the Administration is offering cliches that do not reflect intricate inter-industry relationships in international trade. Stomping your feet and telling foreign industries to“ rebalance” their production output, or trade less with key economic partners, displays a major disrespect for market economies, and it underestimates other nations’ contempt for U. S. dictates.
International market trade cannot be forced, and tariffs, or political intimidation, will harden all foreign markets, creating ephemeral trade agreements at best, for commercial goods.
Insightful economic thinkers like Adam Smith( The Wealth of Nations) told the kings and political ministers that the market is smarter than you.
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