Washington Business Fall 2011 | Page 53

business backgrounder | economy (Still) Looking Ahead to Prosperity With the economy seemingly stuck in neutral, business leaders gathered for 2011 Policy Summit. Jason Hagey More than 300 AWB members came to Suncadia Resort in September for the 22nd annual Policy Summit. A first-rate line-up of speakers offered clear-eyed takes on the troubles facing the state and the country, as well as reasons why they believe things will improve. Looking ahead to prosperity. That was the frustrating and absorbing new workers. But the country’s growing population optimistic theme of this year’s AWB Policy Summit. also means that there will be people paying into social security Frustrating because three years after the start of the worst and Medicare when baby boomers retire. In fact, the United recession in generations, prosperity is still something that is out States is the only wealthy country in the world with a growing there on the horizon, something that is hoped for but — for too population, Rosensweig said. many businesses — not yet realized. The other bit of good news from Rosensweig was his claim And yet it is impossible to deny there are some bright that Washington state is well-positioned to benefit from the spots in the economy, too, some reasons to believe that growing wealth in countries that were once referred to as a Third good times will eventually return. World, or “under-developed.” China, with its well-documented If this sounds familiar, it’s because Policy Summit speakers emerging middle class, is a good example of the phenomenon. have been offering similar assessments for a couple of years now. at a glance A line-up of first-rate speakers offered fresh —Scott Rasmussen, founder and CEO, Rasmussen Reports reasons to be hopeful, AWB’s Policy Summit returned to especially with regard to Suncadia Resort near Cle Elum in exports and innovation. In both cases, September for just the second time Washington state is well-positioned in its 22-year history. to take advantage of positive trends. “People don’t want special favors. They want to know what the rules are.” Despite a shaky economy, it received exports, innovation offer hope Jeffrey Rosensweig, director of the Global Perspectives Program at Emory University in Atlanta, kicked off the good news/bad news theme by informing the Policy Summit audience that there is about a one-third chance that the economy will enter a “doubledip” recession. But he quickly pointed out that means there is a better chance that it won’t happen. Most economists, Rosensweig said, believe it’s more likely that the U.S. economy will continue to grow at a relatively anemic 2 percent or 2.5 percent annual rate. That’s not enough to make a dent in the unemployment rate because it means the economy is simply strong attendance as more than 300 participated. Guest speakers counted Washington’s strong export market and innovation springing from the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory as reasons to be hopeful about the state’s economy. Numerous challenges still pose a threat to the economy, including another state budget shortfall, the threat of another recession, and anxiety about the upheaval coming about as a result of Americans’ frustration with government. Scott Rasmussen, founder and CEO, Rasmussen Reports. fall 2011 51