Vision 2030 Jan. 2011 | Page 53

Peak Oil The next global crisis Globally, approximately 85 million barrels of oil are consumed each day. Annually, that works out at over 31 billion barrels. Speaking about the global oil situation, Luis E. Giusti, Director, Shell and former CEO of Venezuela State Oil Company, described it thus; “If you want to meet the demand, you will have to supply, from the current level of 85m barrels per day to 120m in year 2030. But in order to meet that profile, you would have to supply oil in the order of 200m barrels per day, because a lot of that new oil will have to compensate for the depletion of existing wells.” Oil has been powering the industrial world for more than 150 years and has been the catalyst for the modern world in which we live. The consumption of oil globally is thought by many to have reached its peak, meaning that production of known reserves has entered, or may soon enter, terminal d ecline. Years Peak Oil reached in specific Countries Columbia 2004 Britain 2002 Venezuela 2000 Trinidad & Tobago 1977 Iran 1976 USA 1970 The Middle East is possessed of two thirds of the world’s oil, and is thought to be the only region where production has not yet peaked. In the early 1970s, over half of the globe essentially didn’t use any oil. The only serious consumers were Europe, North America and to a lesser extent, Japan. Today however, the picture has changed completely, with all of the countries of the world competing for the same finite natural resources to power their domestic economies. China’s Insatiable Appetite for Oil Due to the rise of emerging markets, demand for energy is rising faster than predicted. China is exponentially expanding its need for energy. China’s need for energy is projected to increase by 150% by 2020. To sustain its growth, China requires increasing amounts of oil. Its oil consumption grows by 7.5% per year, seven times faster than the U.S. Once a society in which the bicycle represented the most common form of transport, most urban Chinese believe they will own a car in five years. With automobile numbers growing at 19% a year, projections show that China could surpass the total number of cars in the US by 2030. A report by the International Energy Agency predicted that by 2030, Chinese oil imports will equal imports by the U.S. today. 51