Veolia Water Technologies by GineersNow Engineering Magazine GineersNow Engineering Magazine September 2016 | Page 64

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It Might Get Worse: The Best
Prediction About
Asia’s Water Problem
An MIT study probes Asia’s water
problem with an in-depth model.
by Dion Greg Reyes
About half of the world’s total population reside
in the largest continent. More people only means
more demand with water, among other needs.
But it looks like Asia’s relationship with water will
be much more complicated as we reach the year
2050.
A study from the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology entitled, “Projections of Water
Stress Based on an Ensemble of Socioeconomic
Growth and Climate Change Scenarios: A Case
Study in Asia” suggests that in 35 years, Asia will
suffer from serious water shortages with roots
from economic and population growth on top
of climate change. Usin g a detailed modelling
to measure the full range of scenarios involving
water availability and use in the future, the
scientists conclude that there is a “high risk of
severe water stress” across Asia.
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The scientists find that the median amounts of
projected growth and climate change by 2050
would lead to about 1 billion more people
becoming “water-stressed” compared to today.
They looked at a large number of simulations of
future scenarios to arrive to this conclusion.
The scientists used an existing model developed
previously at MIT called the Integrated Global
Systems Model (IGSM). It has the probabilistic
projections of population growth, economic
expansion, climate, and carbon emissions from
human activity, which they linked with detailed
models of water use in Asian countries like
China, India, and many smaller nations.
Three main scenarios were used as an approach
to tease out the human and environmental
factors. They were done in extensive series of
repeated projections using varying conditions.