NEWS
VAPING UP …
NEWS
In the US , Dr Lynn Kozlowski , Professor of Community Health and Health Behaviour of the University of Buffalo , published research in Drug and Alcohol Dependence showing that as use of e-cigarettes in the US have shot up , overall smoking rates have decreased . He said in an interview that : “ The national trends in vaping and cigarette smoking do not support the argument that vaping is leading to smoking . . . . The evidence from the prospective studies ( of gateway ) is weak at best . . . . There is little evidence that those who have never smoked cigarettes or never used other tobacco products and first try e-cigarettes will later move on to cigarette usage with great frequency or daily , regular smoking .”
Kozlowski ’ s paper also highlights several shortcomings in studies that claim to show a link between e-cigarette use and subsequent smoking . He points out that many studies use misleading measures for what is actually considered smoking . “ Measures of ‘ at least one puff in the past six months ’ can mean little more than the experimenting vaper was curious how cigarettes compared ,” Kozlowski said in the interview .
CRYSTAL BALL
E-cigarettes haven ’ t been around for a very long time , which is why there isn ’ t the same wealth of data as there is for snus . However , computer modeling can also be used to help predict the potential public health effects of new tobacco and nicotine products . As mentioned above , our scientists have developed a computer-based population model to do just that . This model was used to look at a number of possible scenarios for the 50 years between 2000 and 2050 , comparing what might happen if e-cigarettes were and were not available . All types of smokers — current smokers , non-smokers , former smokers , e-cigarette users , and dual users — were taken into account , as were many different types of behaviours , such as starting to smoke , quitting and relapsing , switching to e-cigarettes , and becoming a dual user . The model also considered the potential effect of smoking normalisation on starting and quitting rates , and other factors such as gender , ageing and time since quitting .
The results show the potential for an overall beneficial effect of e-cigarettes , significantly reducing smoking prevalence and smoking-related deaths . By 2050 if e-cigarettes are available , the 32 % of smokers in the UK that otherwise would have continued smoking likely would have completely switched to e-cigarettes .
“ Our model shows that when e-cigarettes are available , the effect of ‘ normalisation ’, through for example , the visibility and familiarisation of e-cigarettes versus the ‘ de-normalisation ’ of cigarettes , means that fewer people start smoking and there is a higher rate of successful quit attempts — smokers quit earlier and , although many still relapse , there are significantly more former smokers ,” explained one of the researchers Dr James Murphy , Head of Reduced Risk Substantiation at British American Tobacco .
Mathematical models like this can be used to study complex and constantly changing situations — as is the case when e-cigarettes or other new products become available to the public . They help predict the future based on what ’ s happened in the past , and are particularly helpful in forecasting the possible future impact of products when the longterm health effects are unknown and epidemiological data are not available . The picture that is starting to emerge is that , similar to snus , e-cigarettes could play a positive part in tobacco related harm reduction . Kozlowski and colleagues say that even if there is a small gateway effect , it is totally swamped by the overall trend toward less and less smoking .
Kozlowski ’ s co-author Kenneth Warner adds : “ The persistent focus on the potential risks to kids has caused adults ’ understanding of the risks of e-cigarettes to worsen over time . This is likely discouraging adult smokers from using e-cigarettes as a smoking cessation tool .”
They say that regulations are needed to minimise product risks . “ The public deserves accurate information on the health risks of e-cigarettes versus cigarettes ,” Kozlowski said . “ From the best evidence to date , e-cigarettes are much less dangerous than cigarettes . The public has become confused about this .”
While this confusion reigns , it may prove hard to realise fully the significant potential public health benefits of e-cigarettes .
Dr Marina Murphy is Head of Scientific Media Relations at British American Tobacco
VAPOUROUND MAGAZINE ISSUE 11 33