Vanderbilt Political Review Fall 2015 | Page 22

INTERNATIONAL VANDERBILT POLITICAL REVIEW An Unknown Fate The Iran Deal and its fallout W hen examining a region replete with toppled governments, unchecked militias, and a centuries old sectarian conflict, politicians rarely talk of stability. Yet the summer of 2015 offered a glimmer of hope for a new era in Middle Eastern geopolitics. Without doubt, the historic Iran nuclear deal will shake up the region’s power structure, and many politicians laud the effort as a short-term accord to avoid a regional nuclear arms race. Indeed, keeping Iran in check will prevent a chain reaction of nuclear proliferation among Sunni and Shiite states vying for supremacy. However, there is reason to question the long-term goal of stability for which politicians wish. Religious divisions run deep across the Middle East, and the nuclear deal does little to assuage the tensions between Sunnis and Shiites—tensions that have caused violent upheaval in 2015 in war-torn states like Syria. Old religious conflicts will not halt because of the Iran nuclear deal, despite it being an historic step toward nuclear stability in the Middle East. In particular, the rivalry between Shiite Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia threatens the hope for regional peace and order, which was apparent in some of Saudi Arabia’s more bellicose comments and actions as the deal neared completion. Though Saudi Arabia has since heralded the international compromise as beneficial, inwardly the world’s largest absolute monarchy fears a more powerful Iran. Importantly, the fear of a power struggle in the region between Sunnis and Shiites may push both Saudi Arabia and Iran to expand the proxy wars they currently fight against one another, leading to greater political turmoil and war. 22 by HARRISON EBELING ‘16 One cannot overestimate the strain between these vying states and the upheaval they can create. CNN reports that both have engaged in warfare through proxy in Lebanon, Yemen, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the Gaza Strip. Though Iran and Saudi Arabia avoid direct conflict, both are willing and able to undermine governments, such as in Yemen. There, Iran has supported the Houthis, a rebel group of Zaydi Shiites attempting to wrest control from the Sunni government. A U.S. State Department official stated in a Congressional hearing “we believe that Iran sees opportunities with the Houthis to expand its influence in Yemen and threaten Saudi and Gulf Arab interests.” As if to illustrate the effects of sectarian conflicts in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia responded to Iran’s interference with pummeling air strikes in Yemen this past spring and summer while attempting (and failing) to gather together a coalition to invade the country. There is clearly no love lost between the religious rivals; CNN has even reported General Ahmad Purdastan, the commander of the Iranian ground forces, threatening that the Saudis should “beware of the day when firecrackers explode in Riyadh.” Considering the aforementioned skirmishes in which Saudi Arabia and Iran continue to find themselves, the United States’ Sunni allies on the Arabian Peninsula have reason to question an Iran free from crippling sanctions. In fact, President Obama admitted last December that the U.S. might not oppose a more powerful Iran, since “there’s incre X