INTERNATIONAL
VANDERBILT POLITICAL REVIEW
An Unknown Fate
The Iran Deal and its fallout
W
hen examining a region replete with toppled governments, unchecked militias,
and a centuries old sectarian conflict,
politicians rarely talk of stability. Yet
the summer of 2015 offered a glimmer
of hope for a new era in Middle Eastern
geopolitics. Without doubt, the historic
Iran nuclear deal will shake up the region’s power structure, and many politicians laud the effort as a short-term accord to avoid a regional nuclear arms
race. Indeed, keeping Iran in check will
prevent a chain reaction of nuclear proliferation among Sunni and Shiite states
vying for supremacy. However, there is
reason to question the long-term goal
of stability for which politicians wish.
Religious divisions run deep across
the Middle East, and the nuclear deal
does little to assuage the tensions between Sunnis and Shiites—tensions that
have caused violent upheaval in 2015
in war-torn states like Syria. Old religious conflicts will not halt because of
the Iran nuclear deal, despite it being an
historic step toward nuclear stability in
the Middle East. In particular, the rivalry
between Shiite Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia threatens the hope for regional peace
and order, which was apparent in some of
Saudi Arabia’s more bellicose comments
and actions as the deal neared completion. Though Saudi Arabia has since heralded the international compromise as
beneficial, inwardly the world’s largest
absolute monarchy fears a more powerful Iran. Importantly, the fear of a power
struggle in the region between Sunnis
and Shiites may push both Saudi Arabia
and Iran to expand the proxy wars they
currently fight against one another, leading to greater political turmoil and war.
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by HARRISON EBELING ‘16
One cannot overestimate the strain
between these vying states and the upheaval they can create. CNN reports that
both have engaged in warfare through
proxy in Lebanon, Yemen, Afghanistan,
Pakistan, and the Gaza Strip. Though
Iran and Saudi Arabia avoid direct conflict, both are willing and able to undermine governments, such as in Yemen.
There, Iran has supported the Houthis, a
rebel group of Zaydi Shiites attempting
to wrest control from the Sunni government. A U.S. State Department official
stated in a Congressional hearing “we believe that Iran sees opportunities with the
Houthis to expand its influence in Yemen
and threaten Saudi and Gulf Arab interests.” As if to illustrate the effects of sectarian conflicts in the Middle East, Saudi
Arabia responded to Iran’s interference
with pummeling air strikes in Yemen this
past spring and summer while attempting (and failing) to gather together a
coalition to invade the country. There is
clearly no love lost between the religious
rivals; CNN has even reported General
Ahmad Purdastan, the commander of the
Iranian ground forces, threatening that
the Saudis should “beware of the day
when firecrackers explode in Riyadh.”
Considering the aforementioned skirmishes in which Saudi Arabia and Iran
continue to find themselves, the United
States’ Sunni allies on the Arabian Peninsula have reason to question an Iran free
from crippling sanctions. In fact, President Obama admitted last December that
the U.S. might not oppose a more powerful Iran, since “there’s incre X