LNG
Outlook
The LNG industry has seen a massive surge in capacity in recent years. The USA has stepped up exports to Europe to fill the gap left by the cessation of gas piped from Russia. The USA and Qatar have emerged as the top producers, pushing Australia into third place. Like Europe, Asia is also upping its import capacity as it hopes to replace coal with LNG. However, there are fears that the market could become flooded. This depends on the state of the world economy and how various geopolitical tensions play out, as well as the speed of the transition to renewables, which is proceeding rapidly in Europe, meaning that its dependence on LNG could decrease. In February, Shell optimistically stated that global demand for LNG would increase by more than 50 % by 2040( 1). However, in April the IEEFA noted sluggish demand and warned of oversupply within two years, with European demand decreasing between 2023 and 2030( 2). Demand for natural gas seems already to have slowed and natural gas prices have descended from the record highs of late 2021 to 2022.
Other challenges
Two other concerns darken the LNG picture: safety and emissions. In June 2022, there was an explosion at the Freeport terminal in Texas after a blocked pipe valve caused a build-up of pressure and a leakage. Investigators reported that staff were overworked and tired, leading to defects being overlooked, and that the regulatory regime was decades-old and inadequately enforced( 3). This incident has revived discussion about exactly how safe LNG is. When hydrocarbons are released, they form a fine mist or vapour cloud that can explode when trapped in a confined space or whenever the wind is still. It is not only methane that is a hazard, but also refrigerants, a potentially explosive cocktail of methane, ethane, propane and other light hydrocarbons, sometimes with the addition of nitrogen. The Freeport accident did not cause any injuries or deaths, but previous accidents have. The most serious occurred in 1944 in Cleveland, Ohio, when leaking gas caused an explosion killing 128 people.( It was this accident that prompted the invention of 9 % nickel, as the Cleveland plant had been using low-nickel steel because of nickel shortages during World War 2.) Other fatalities occurred in 1973, at Staten Island, NY( 37 dead); 1979, at Cove Point, Maryland( one dead, one injured); 2004, in Skikda, Algeria( 27 dead, 74 injured); 2012, in the
Explicit ApS uses a drone to measure methane emissions in the exhaust plume of a ship while TNO measures in the exhaust stack from the engine room. Photo: Explicit ApS.
Punto Fijo oil and LNG refinery in Venezuela( 47 dead and 135 wounded; it is not known if LNG was the gas that leaked); and Toppenish, Washington( 1 dead). Residents near LNG terminals are on edge and there is considerable pressure to switch to safer forms of energy. As if this were not enough, it turns out that LNG is not the poster-boy transition fuel it was previously thought to be – at least not yet, and not in the USA. LNG produces lower CO 2 emissions than coal but this is more than offset by methane leaks, which cause 80 % more warming than CO 2 in the first 20 years. So GHG emissions from LNG are overall much higher than previously thought: it has been claimed LNG produced from shale gas produces 33 % more emissions than coal( 4). These emissions occur during shale gas extraction, on LNG-fueled ships( methane slip) and during cargo unloading. Altogether, it turns out that LNG-fueled ships emit more GHG than traditionally fueled ships( 5).
Artist’ s rendering of Cedar LNG in the territories of the Haisla Nation, British Columbia, Canada, with the proposed facility next to a docked LNG carrier.
32 Valve World May 2025 www. valve-world. net