MARKETS
($ Millions ) |
Subject |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2021 |
Select All |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10,527.54 |
Ball |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3,243.22 |
Butterfly |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
691.50 |
Check |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
461.32 |
Gate |
1,600.74 |
1,625.91 |
1,659.29 |
1,699.11 |
1,744.61 |
1,795.54 |
1,851.95 |
1,914.04 |
Globe |
1,077.22 |
1,094.15 |
1,116.62 |
1,143.42 |
1,174.03 |
1,208.31 |
1,246.27 |
1,288.05 |
Industrial Plug |
1,803.47 |
1,831.82 |
1,869.44 |
1,914.30 |
1,965.56 |
2,022.94 |
2,086.50 |
2,156.44 |
Other |
490.98 |
498.70 |
508.94 |
521.15 |
535.10 |
550.73 |
568.03 |
587.07 |
Safety Relief |
155.47 |
157.91 |
161.15 |
165.02 |
169.44 |
174.39 |
179.86 |
185.89 |
The need to determine flow and distance is symptomatic of the interdependence of all the process and product markets . Each compressor station requires a set of valves . So , the compressor forecasts provide factors for determining the valve revenues . Isolation valves are required to shut off sections of the pipeline and to provide a blow down exit safely to atmosphere . It is necessary to determine pipe sizes and lengths in order to segment the valves by size . In terms of market size by geographical entity the source identification is necessary . How much will be shale gas , how much shale oil . How much will come from subsea or from oil sands . The longer-term forecasts need to take into account the percentage of energy from oil and gas versus wind , solar , hydro , and nuclear . Will fusion have an impact and when ?
Projected results
Significant amounts of oil and gas are piped to chemical plants , which
Facts to factors to forecasts
make plastics and other products . The availability of low-cost gas from the shale reserves in Pennsylvania is creating a whole industrial complex with lots of valves . The demand for oil and gas will be a function of economic developments . The slowdown in China will impact the market . The projected market share will be a function of competitor technology and strength . Compressor companies such as Baker Hughes are major valve producers . Now , other compressor suppliers such as Atlas Copco and Ingersoll Rand are acquiring valve companies . Some suppliers are expanding vertically , such as Schlumberger . They have expanded into the valves and other equipment necessary to produce synthetic sands for shale fracturing . The evaluation of the process equipment not only is necessary for the forecasts , but it is valuable as a way to identify OEM customers and understand the lowest total cost of ownership .
Fact |
Factor |
Forecast |
Fossil alternatives |
Impact of renewables |
Mix of fossil , nuclear and renewables |
Extraction quantity |
Shale , subsea percent |
BCF for each |
Extraction |
Factor for 85 countries |
Country BCF forecasts |
location |
|
|
Distance |
Length and size of pipe per cf ./ dy . |
Miles of pipe by size |
From extraction to use |
|
|
Compression losses per mile |
Number of compressor stations / 100 miles |
Number of compressor stations |
Number of compressor stations |
Valves per station |
Number of valves |
Pipeline class |
Valves per 100 miles |
Number of valves |
High pressure |
% High pressure required |
Trunnion valve forecast |
The facts , factors and forecasts can be used up and down their organization . They can be used by R & D to determine where to spend funds . They can be used by senior management to make acquisitions and determine where to expand . The forecast should be reliable enough to set the target for individual salespeople . Furthermore , structured input from the local salespeople can improve the reliability of the numbers . A final advantage is the ability to continually adjust forecasts as facts and factors change . Typical market research is not structured . The relative weight of any one fact is impossible to re-evaluate . With this comprehensive approach all facts are identified . Each fact x a factor = a forecast . If a fact changes , the factor and forecast can also change .
Takeaways
To summarize , if facts , factors , and forecasts are obtained for all valve applications , their potential increase in EBITDA is very significant . Major league baseball is a good example of the success of facts , factors , and forecasts . There is one more valid comparison . The analytical approach can lead to complementary products . A baseball team owner can move into a complementary sport or into real estate using the stadium surroundings . The valve company can move into IIOT and supply solutions or into pumps or other complementary products . It already has many of the facts and factors needed for success in adjacent markets . www . valve-world . net Valve World February 2023
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