• MARKET REPORT •
The Next Wave in Low-Carbon Hydrogen Trade
While LNG transport is mature and cost-efficient, hydrogen is difficult and expensive to ship due to extreme cooling requirements.
While the hydrogen valve market remains modest in size, it’ s at the center of an evolving energy transition. The projected growth is increasingly influenced by technology, infrastructure choices, and competing lowcarbon fuel strategies.
• By Robert McIlvaine – CEO – McIlvaine Company
The hydrogen valve market worldwide is currently less than $ 400 million per year. However, it will increase from 6 % to 10 % depending on a large number of variables 1.
The most significant variable is political. At this point, the U. S. position is unclear and so is its influence on the world. The use of hydrogen and ammonia, as a substitute for hydrogen, are among the unknowns.
Japan is leading the way in its use of ammonia as a fuel for gas-fired boilers. It is teaming up with Australia in this effort for a number of reasons. Australia’ s plan to convert natural gas into hydrogen with carbon capture and storage( CCS) before exporting it to Japan reflects geology and climate policy more than simple shipping costs.
Technically, Japan could import liquefied natural gas( LNG), reform it into hydrogen, and capture the carbon dioxide domestically. However, Japan has limited geological capacity for longterm CO 2 storage, faces seismic risks, and has dense population constraints that complicate large-scale CCS deployment. Australia, by contrast, has vast sedimentary basins, depleted gas fields, and established carbon injection projects, making CO 2 storage more practical and potentially cheaper.
Shipping economics also matter. While LNG transport is mature and costefficient, hydrogen is difficult and expensive to ship due to extreme cooling requirements. Converting hydrogen into ammonia offers a compromise as ammonia liquefies more easily, has existing global shipping infrastructure, and contains no carbon. This allows Japan to burn it or crack it back into hydrogen without managing CO 2 emissions.
Ultimately, producing hydrogen with CCS in Australia allows Japan to import low carbon fuel without developing domestic carbon storage, while enabling Australia to maintain its role as an energy exporter in a decarbonizing world.
In parallel, regulators and safety standards for handling ammonia will influence adoption rates. If those frameworks mature, ammonia could accelerate early decarbonization in heat and power sectors, pulling demand through valves, storage systems, and related equipment.
The substitution of ammonia for hydrogen is likely to be a major market in the near term. The use of hydrogen as a fuel for vehicles will be of great importance in the long- term, but over the next decade it will play a minor role due to the infrastructure challenges and cost.
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Reference McIlvaine No28 Industrial Valve Market Transformation Guide.
• ABOUT THE AUTHOR •
Robert McIlvaine is the CEO and founder of The McIlvaine Company, which was established in 1974. He has led the organization to the forefront of knowledge solutions in pollution control, energy, contamination management, and beyond. Robert is a Princeton graduate with over 50 years of consulting experience conducting studies and advising corporations on acquisitions.
10 Valve World Americas | June 2026 | www. valve-world-americas. com