ECONOMY
MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS 2017
Reporting period: December 2017
Macroeconomic indicators
2016 |
2016 |
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2017 |
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2017 |
Dec |
FY |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
FY |
Q4 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
GDP($ bn) |
27.930 |
98.822 |
21.577 |
24.826 |
31.704 |
growth, y-o-y(%) |
9.16 % |
2.8 |
22.2 % |
17.9 % |
21.1 % |
Export($ bn) |
3.63 |
36.37 |
3.03 |
3.20 |
4.11 |
3.34 |
3.48 |
3.35 |
3.21 |
3.67 |
3.77 |
3.86 |
4.30 |
3.92 |
43.23 |
growth, y-o-y(%) |
8 % |
-3.9 |
48 % |
20 % |
37 % |
8 % |
21 % |
14 % |
10 % |
15 % |
19 % |
19 % |
19 % |
8 % |
19 % |
Import($ bn) |
4.13 |
38.93 |
3.10 |
3.67 |
4.37 |
3.73 |
3.83 |
3.96 |
4.01 |
4.25 |
4.32 |
4.58 |
4.74 |
4.91 |
49.45 |
growth, y-o-y(%) |
32 % |
5.8 |
32 % |
18 % |
35 % |
22 % |
27 % |
47 % |
30 % |
23 % |
25 % |
28 % |
24 % |
19 % |
27 % |
Industrial Prod. Sales
($ bn)
7.64 69.08 6.34 6.44 6.91 5.92 6.25 6.27 6.31 6.62 6.66 7.24 7.69 8.20 80.9 growth, y-o-y(%) 20 % 0.2 28 % 30 % 27 % 14 % 16 % 16 % 12 % 19 % 19 % 13 % 11 % 8 % 17 %
Retail Turnover($ bn) |
2.09 |
21.38 |
1.40 |
1.37 |
1.62 |
1.66 |
1.93 |
1.78 |
1.96 |
2.09 |
1.93 |
1.98 |
1.99 |
2.40 |
22.1 |
growth, y-o-y(%) |
4 % |
-2.7 |
-12% |
-8% |
-2% |
-6% |
21 % |
3 % |
4 % |
9 % |
10 % |
6 % |
-3% |
15 % |
3.4 % |
Unemployment Rate(%) 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.3
Average Salary($) |
247 |
203 |
221 |
230 |
250 |
248 |
259 |
272 |
283 |
278 |
257 |
277 |
276 |
319 |
266 |
CPI( Consumer Prices Index) |
112.4 |
114.9 |
112.6 |
114.2 |
115.1 |
112.2 |
113.5 |
115.6 |
115.9 |
116.2 |
116.4 |
114.6 |
113.6 |
113.7 |
114.5 |
GfK Consumer Sentiment Ind. 57.1 51.4 53.7 56.2 55.5 54.9 58.0 59.4 58.5 58.2 59.0 62.6 62.3 60.3 58.3
Official currency exchange rate
UAH / USD 26.2 25.6 27.2 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.4 26.1 26.0 25.6 26.1 26.7 26.7 27.5 26.6 UAH / EUR 27.6 28.29 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.2 29.3 29.8 30.2 31.1 31.4 31.3 32.6 30.0
Sources: State Statistics Service of Ukraine, UPharma Consulting, National Bank of Ukraine, ICU
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION & RETAILS SALES
Industrial Production Sales( USD, Bn)
Industrial Production Sales Retail Turnover of Enterprises
10 5
9
8.20
7.60 7.69
8
7.24
4
6.91 6.62 6.66
7
6.34 6.44 5.92
6.25 6.27 6.31
6
3
5 4
2.40 2
2.09 1.93 1.96 2.09
1.62 1.66
1.78 1.93 1.98 1.99
3 2
1.40 1.37
1
1 0
0
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2016 2017
TOTAL CPI VS PHARMA PRODUCTS CPI
Total CPI, % y-o-y Pharma products CPI, % y-o-y
120
114.2 115.1
115.6 115.9 116.2 116.4 114.6
112.4 112.6
113.5 113.6 113.7
115
112.2
110
10 6.40 1 0 5. 40 10 6. 10 10 4. 20
1 0 3. 20 10 2.80 1 0 3. 00 1 0 3. 20 103. 90 10 4. 10 103. 90 10 4. 50 10 5. 10
105
100 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2016 2017
OFFICIAL CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES
UAH / USD |
UAH / EUR |
27.6 |
28.8 |
28.8 |
28.8 |
28.8 |
29.2 |
29.26
29. 8
30. 2
|
|
|
31.1 |
31.4 |
31.3 |
32.6 |
26.2 |
27.2 |
27.0 |
27.0 |
26.9 |
26.4 |
26.1 |
26.0 |
25.6 |
26.1 |
26.7 |
26.7 |
27.5 |
Retail Turnover of Enterprises( USD, Bn)
Ukrainian Economy At The Year End
- According to the NBU the estimated yearly GDP of Ukraine in 2017 grew by + 2.1 % vs 2016.
- Labour market indicators such as the unemployment rate and the ratio of economically active people has deteriorated. As of the end of the 3Q17, these ratios were 9.4 % and 62.2 %, respectively, while at the end of 2015, they were 7.2 % and 65 %. Due to the loss of control of Crimea and parts of Donbas, the total number of economically active people dropped from nearly 22m to 17.9m over the four-year period of 2014 – 17.
- The UAH devaluation( in trade-weighted terms) has been sizable; in nominal terms, it was larger than in the 2008-09 and 1998-2000 crises, while in real terms, it was at a similar level as in 2008 – 09 crisis.
- Households’ consumption increased significantly in 2017, being encouraged by a strong increase of both nominal and real wages. The latest data shows that real wages increased 18.9 % YoY in Dec, while nominal wages ascended by 35.5 % in the same period.
- Consumer Prices Index in the country was pushed by the increased domestic demand on the back of increased real wages, however, the CPI on pharmaceutical products was a subject to traditional seasonal fluctuations and remained rather low during the 2017 and reached 4.1 % in yearly terms.
- We expect the CPI will remain in double-digits by the end of 2018.
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2016 2017
Issue 29 Jan 2018 page 02