ECONOMY FORECASTS FOR 2017
Upharmacia January 2017
2017 YEAR FORECASTS
Economy
According to a majority of forecasts, it is expected that Ukraine’ s economy will recover and its GDP will continue growing. However, such expectations are rather modest given the fact that Ukraine’ s economy has already survived deep recession at 1.5-3 %.
Recovery of domestic demand is among key factors contributing to economic growth. Private consumption will moderately recover in the medium term as a result of pent-up demand and rising incomes.
ECONOMY FORECASTS FOR 2017
GDP growth, %
Inflation, %
SigmaBlaizer 3.0 10.0
EBRD 2.0-
IMF 2.5 11.0
It is also expected that business investments will rise. However, a |
World Bank |
2.0 |
8.5 |
substantial increase in investment activity in the near future will |
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stimulate a respective increase in investment imports, including |
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machinery and equipment, which will largely increase in a negative contribution of net export to GDP. |
A revival of credit activity amid expected reducing interest rates will be an additional factor contributing to |
growing domestic demand. |
A net export will slow down the GDP growth. Slow global economic growth, including a slowdown in China’ s growth, will curb an increase in Ukraine’ s export.
Pharmaceutical Sector
Pharmaceutical market of Ukraine is expected to continue a slight recovery in 2017. As the purchasing power of the population continues growing with the growth of the salary levels, the retail market will increase in both values and volumes.
The negative factor is the instability of the national currency, devaluation of which is projected at 10 % for 2017. The successful launch of reference pricing and reimbursement for certain categories of drugs in Apr is supposed to benefit both producers and customers, but regulatory provisions still raise many questions within the industry.
According to ProximaResearch projection, the market will increase by 14-18 % in hryvnias and by 2.9 % in volumes.
Healthcare Sector
-21.2 %-34.3 %
3534 2323 2344 2539
The plans of the Ministry of Health for 2017 are highly ambitious. The main emphasis will be on the reformation of medical institutions through provision of wider autonomy to the management and creation of hospital districts.
Moreover, Ukraine is starting the gradual movement towards insurance medicine. First steps are changes in primary care funding and an introduction of family doctors.
The main factor, which could halt the reformation is the sabotage from the side of officials and lobbyists, which use the existing system for personal gain. Moreover, the position of Ulana Suprun is unstable as she is still the acting Minister of Healthcare, while a lot of MOH’ s initiatives have been criticizing by publicity as well as senior officials. Thereby, the success of the reforms will mostly depend on the MOH’ s management credibility level and the industry’ s readiness to change.
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
2 500
2 000
1 500
1 000
500
0
Ukrainian Retail Pharmaceutical Market
USD mio Forecast y-o-y growth, % in values
0.9 %
8.3 %
2014 2015 2016 2017
-11.5 %-12.3 %
2.9 % 2.9 %
1764 1548 1593 1639
Source: ProximaResearch
UkrainianRetail Pharmaceutical Market mio packs
Forecast y-o-y growth, % in volumes
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
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Source: ProximaResearch |
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