ECONOMY FORECASTS FOR 2017
Upharmacia January 2017
2017 YEAR FORECASTS
Economy
According to a majority of forecasts , it is expected that Ukraine ’ s economy will recover and its GDP will continue growing . However , such expectations are rather modest given the fact that Ukraine ’ s economy has already survived deep recession at 1.5-3 %.
Recovery of domestic demand is among key factors contributing to economic growth . Private consumption will moderately recover in the medium term as a result of pent-up demand and rising incomes .
ECONOMY FORECASTS FOR 2017
GDP growth , %
Inflation , %
SigmaBlaizer 3.0 10.0
EBRD 2.0 -
IMF 2.5 11.0
It is also expected that business investments will rise . However , a |
World Bank |
2.0 |
8.5 |
substantial increase in investment activity in the near future will |
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stimulate a respective increase in investment imports , including |
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machinery and equipment , which will largely increase in a negative contribution of net export to GDP . |
A revival of credit activity amid expected reducing interest rates will be an additional factor contributing to |
growing domestic demand . |
A net export will slow down the GDP growth . Slow global economic growth , including a slowdown in China ’ s growth , will curb an increase in Ukraine ’ s export .
Pharmaceutical Sector
Pharmaceutical market of Ukraine is expected to continue a slight recovery in 2017 . As the purchasing power of the population continues growing with the growth of the salary levels , the retail market will increase in both values and volumes .
The negative factor is the instability of the national currency , devaluation of which is projected at 10 % for 2017 . The successful launch of reference pricing and reimbursement for certain categories of drugs in Apr is supposed to benefit both producers and customers , but regulatory provisions still raise many questions within the industry .
According to ProximaResearch projection , the market will increase by 14-18 % in hryvnias and by 2.9 % in volumes .
Healthcare Sector
-21.2 % -34.3 %
3534 2323 2344 2539
The plans of the Ministry of Health for 2017 are highly ambitious . The main emphasis will be on the reformation of medical institutions through provision of wider autonomy to the management and creation of hospital districts .
Moreover , Ukraine is starting the gradual movement towards insurance medicine . First steps are changes in primary care funding and an introduction of family doctors .
The main factor , which could halt the reformation is the sabotage from the side of officials and lobbyists , which use the existing system for personal gain . Moreover , the position of Ulana Suprun is unstable as she is still the acting Minister of Healthcare , while a lot of MOH ’ s initiatives have been criticizing by publicity as well as senior officials . Thereby , the success of the reforms will mostly depend on the MOH ’ s management credibility level and the industry ’ s readiness to change .
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
2 500
2 000
1 500
1 000
500
0
Ukrainian Retail Pharmaceutical Market
USD mio Forecast y-o-y growth , % in values
0.9 %
8.3 %
2014 2015 2016 2017
-11.5 % -12.3 %
2.9 % 2.9 %
1764 1548 1593 1639
Source : ProximaResearch
UkrainianRetail Pharmaceutical Market mio packs
Forecast y-o-y growth , % in volumes
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
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Source : ProximaResearch |
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