Analýzy a trendy v SR, EÚ a USA Analyses and trends in SR, EU & USA
mood of consumers. That is
why I tend to look at things without emotions. To cleanse of
the debri, which deforms the
reality. Sentiment, the grey eminentia of the investment markets… I experienced the bottom, when everybody around
was a desperate pessimist and
the market suddenly went towards the opposite direction.
Then I saw the growth analysis a few days before the fatal
break. Sentiment is not a good
adviser about the future. Today
the mood is on the zero point,
it will not be that bad.
We have different assumptions,
the planet has changed. We
have mainly historic unprecedented potential to solve problems, questions and situations,
which in the past overcome our
capacities. The demography of
the wealth and intellectual potential made a significant leap,
which doesn‘t have an analogy
in the history. During one generation the world wealth has
multiplied, there has never been
so many wealthy people as we
have at present. At the same
time the average life span has
prolonged during this generation and thus as the result of this,
the amount of educated people
has also multiplied compared to
the the previous generation.
We have the capacity to solve
multiple amount of problems
with the much higher complexity. That is why the development
is so fast. Previous generations
can be viewed as or compared
to an elementary school pupil
who worries about the simple
equation as opposed to sol-
12
ving the scientific problems at
MIT. In addition we are on the
threshold of the energetic revolution, which the world has
experienced perhaps only once.
The crude oil has drawn the development actually for a long
time, the extent of activities
which are concerning with its
alternatives is so widespread
that the strong transformation of the world economy from
the standpoint of energetic needs is probable. The question is
whether the domination will be
taken over by slate gas which
already today changes the energetic paradigms of the biggest
world economy or it will be still
more available solar energy or
other total new alternative. It is
a good assumption that there
will be lots of energy and therefore the price will be good so
there is no doubt that will be
a great for the world economy.
So is the glass half-empty? Halffull? In the USA the unemployment has been on a decline for
four years, not even one American state is now in double-digit
unemployment (Rhode Island
with the highest unemployment rate is close under the
10% level), US households have
reached the lowest share of instalment of their debt to their
income for more than three
decades (I would not underestimate this data, these consumers have same economic
power as China and Germany
together and can start to spend
much more than they have up
to now). Cash, only cash of
the accounts of the American
companies has reached the
overwhelming amount of 1500
billion USD (what is the amount
higher than GDP of Spain and
a little lower than GDP of Russia and India) and the profitability of these companies has
reached the historic maximums.
If we gave greater weight to
this information in our view to
the economic situation, what
conclusions would we come to?
I wouldn‘t dare call it whether
the most growth will be seen
by S & P index or DAX. USD can
expect to loose its status as well
as strengthen the current level.
What I would like to put to the
forefront of my consideration
are the trends in decrease of the
world poverty, the change of
economic power of the developing markets. In ten years Latin
America can be a rich region,
Africa does not have to starve
and Peking can have more inhabitants than France. Totally new
scientific fields and industrial
branches will be discovered,
which power is hard to foresee (after experience with the
internet economy and mobile
communication). It is possible
that company with the highest
market capitalization will be the
Indonesian company aimed at
nanotechnologies or the global
cosmic agency or the conglomerate from China concerning
with the geronto-services… The
world will change faster than
ever. So no securities… but it
will be better. Much better.
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