COVID-19 pandemic . The gap in placed rates between these groups has also risen from 25.2 percentage points in 2016 to 26.5 percentage points in 2021 .
b . Meanwhile , the gap in application rates between learners living in areas targeted by Uni Connect and those living in other areas has also increased since the programme launched . After initially narrowing from 16.2 percentage points in 2016 to 15.9 percentage points in 2020 , this gap then widened to 17.1 percentage points in 2021 – an increase of 0.9 percentage points since 2016 . Again , this is because application rates were initially increasing by approximately the same amount each year in both groups , but the application rates of learners from other areas increased more substantially in 2021 . The gap in placed rates between these groups has also risen from 14.6 percentage points in 2016 to 15.2 percentage points in 2021 – an increase of 0.6 percentage points .
c . It is possible that these trends in application outcomes are the result of factors other than the Uni Connect programme itself . It might be that the composition and characteristics of the two groups of learners are changing over time , which is influencing the gaps in application outcomes . We have therefore considered underlying differences in characteristics between learners living in Uni Connect areas and those not , by comparing two groups of learners with the same mix of certain characteristics . Where we do this , gaps in application rates and placed rates reduce substantially . This suggests that the characteristics used to match the two groups of learners ( GCSE results , free school meal eligibility , sex and ethnicity ) are contributing towards the observed gaps in application outcomes .
d . Nonetheless , after these underlying differences are taken into account , the gap in application rates is still estimated to have increased by between 0.5 and 1.7 percentage points between 2016 and 2021 , which is statistically significant . 5 Estimates of the change in the gap in placed rates between 2016 and 2021 ranged between 0.0 and 1.2 percentage points .
e . The impact of the Uni Connect programme may be limited by its scale . Activity monitoring data returned by Uni Connect partnerships suggests that 17.2 per cent of learners living in Uni Connect target areas in the most recent cohort received the full amount of engagement intended in the programme design , although only a small minority of 10.5 per cent received no engagement whatsoever . For comparison , an engagement target of 20 per cent of learners living in Uni Connect target areas was agreed for Uni Connect partnerships in phase one and two of the programme . 6 f .
The gap in ‘ high tariff ’ application rates ( the proportion of learners applying to more selective universities and colleges ) between learners from Uni Connect target areas and learners from other areas has also widened since the launch of the programme ,
5
Statistical significance is reported at the 95 per cent confidence level throughout this report .
6
See ‘ Meeting targets and milestones ’ in ‘ NCOP : end of phase one report for the national formative and impact evaluations ’, available at www . officeforstudents . org . uk / publications / ncop-end-of-phase-oneevaluation-report /. For phase two , see paragraph 13 of ‘ National Collaborative Outreach Programme Phase two guidance ’ available at www . officeforstudents . org . uk / publications / national-collaborative-outreachprogramme-phase-two-guidance /.
5