Application outcomes by POLAR3
45 . Having seen the trends across the Key Stage 4 population , we now compare the application outcomes of learners living in the most represented ( POLAR3 quintile 5 ) and least represented ( quintile 1 ) areas for each application cycle from 2012 to 2021 . We find that first making an application is the stage of the process that makes the largest contribution to the participation gap .
46 . We start by reporting gaps in outcomes which are measured as a proportion of the Key Stage 4 population : application rates , high tariff application rates and placed rates . We then consider the two application outcomes which are conditional on a learner having applied through UCAS : offer rates and acceptance rates .
Application rate
47 . Data from the most recent cohort of learners ( who applied during the COVID-19 pandemic ) shows that the gap in application rates between the most and least represented areas has widened since 2012 .
48 . In this analysis , the application rate is the proportion of the Key Stage 4 population who apply to higher education through UCAS . Figure 2 shows application rates between the 2012 and 2021 UCAS application cycles , comparing learners who were living in POLAR3 quintile 5 and quintile 1 areas in England , according to postcode information recorded in Key Stage 4 .
49 . Application rates for both POLAR3 quintile 1 and quintile 5 areas increased year-on-year since 2012 . But in each cycle , there was a substantial gap of around 27 to 28 percentage points between the application rate for the most and least represented areas . 26 This means that young people from the most represented areas were more than twice as likely to apply for higher education at age 18 than than those from the least represented areas .
50 . Between 2012 and 2020 , application rates grew from 18.5 per cent to 27.3 per cent in POLAR3 quintile 1 areas ( up 8.8 percentage points ), and from 46.5 per cent to 55.2 per cent in quintile 5 areas ( up 8.7 percentage points ). Therefore , the absolute increase in application rates was broadly similar for these two groups .
51 . However , in the most recent 2021 application cycle , for the cohort of learners who applied during the COVID-19 pandemic , the gap between the most and least represented areas widened from 27.9 percentage points in 2020 to 29.6 percentage points in 2021 , an increase of 1.7 percentage points .
26
Note that percentage point differences in this report have been calculated using unrounded numbers , which means they sometimes differ from the difference between other rounded numbers elsewhere in the report .
20