Uni Connect National Evaluation Report May 2022 | Page 2

Contents

Summary 3
Findings
4
Next steps
6
Introduction 7
Structure of this report
7
Uni Connect programme
8
Uni Connect evaluation
9
COVID-19 pandemic
9
Methodology 12
Population
12
POLAR
13
Application outcomes
13
Limitations
15
Application outcomes for Key Stage 4 population 18
Application outcomes by POLAR3 20
Application rate
20
High tariff application rate
22
Placed rate
23
Offer rate
24
Acceptance rate
25
Application outcomes by Uni Connect areas 28
Uni Connect target areas
28
Quantifying the extent of Uni Connect engagement in target areas
29
Gaps in application outcomes
31
Estimating changes in gaps in application outcomes after taking other factors into account 38
Matched counterfactual analysis
38
Findings
40
Annex A : Relationship between application rates and GCSE attainment 48 Annex B : Proportion of learners with different characteristics 52 Annex C : Entry into higher education by age 19 57
Annex D : Matched counterfactual analysis 62
Technical description
62
Minimising spillover effects
63
Sensitivity analysis
64
Annex E : Summary of feedback from previous release and changes to the analysis 66
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