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Analyst : Unprecedented TV disruption under way

The new edition of A . T . Kearney ’ s NextGen study assesses the disruption and sheds light on new business models of the global TV market . The expectation is for major disruption in the next five years , across all markets although at different speeds . In markets such as Northern Europe , North America , and developed Asia , disruption is already well under way . Based on interviews with C-level executives from pay TV providers , telcos , cable companies , broadcasters , and online video providers , 64 % of respondents expect broadcasters to market their own OTT platform and estimate that 75 % of consumer-paid revenues in OTT will be from subscription vs . 25 % from pay per use . As content and distribution converge and all players pursue direct-to-customer models , there is a massive increase in content and platform options for consumers . These developments lead to an oversupply of video services for consumers to choose from . The study indicates executives expect households to pay for only two or three video subscriptions . With most content owners and new service operators lacking capabilities , resources , and experience to provide direct-to-consumer offerings , market fragmentation will create opportunities for companies to collect and deliver this overflow of content in a compelling and structured way . “ Our study indicates a strong latent demand for what we call content navigators . To thrive in this new environment , having the right content is no longer enough . The user experience and branding are also central elements of the value proposition ,” says A . T . Kearney partner Jan- Piet Nelissen , co-author of the report . “ Many companies in the TV ecosystem can pursue a content navigator role , but given our consumer insights , there will not be a place for everyone . Speed and scale will be critical .” Industry executives expect production houses and ( diversified ) Internet companies providing OTT video to be major winners going forward . Respondents mention Netflix ( 32 %), Google ( 26 %), and Amazon ( 17 %) to be the biggest threats to their business . On the other hand , Pay TV operators and broadcasters are the most at risk mainly due to the lack of experience in digital experience building . Although the trends in TV markets around the world are similar , the environment and pace of disruption varies . The A . T . Kearney Global TV Disruption Index assesses how much disruption each country can expect over the next five years . In that Index , disruption is defined as a shift in video consumption from linear broadcast to OTT platforms , i . e ., from serving homes to serving individuals . “ Markets experiencing disruption are expected to follow a similar curve ,” notes Christophe Firth , A . T . Kearney principal and co-author of the report . “ There is therefore much to learn from both markets that are at the same stage and those that are further along the curve . Although some markets appear to be safe from short-term disruption , the landscape can