Trustnet Magazine Issue 44 October 2018 | Page 4

Cover story 2 / 3 [ PASSIVE INVESTING ] Robin Powell of The Evidence-Based Investor debunks some of the biggest myths about passive investing Blown out of the water I t is difficult to get a man to understand something,” the American author Upton Sinclair once remarked, “when his salary depends upon his not understanding it”. That quotation often comes to mind when I read the stories the industry PR machine keeps churning out about the “dangers” of passive investing. Let’s start with a disclosure. I’m not a fan of active management. I’m a journalist and five years ago I was asked to make a documentary about the merits of passive investing. What I discovered from the weeks of research I carried out and the interviews I conducted with academics, including Nobel Prize winners, astounded me. There’s more than 50 years of peer-reviewed academic research to support eschewing actively managed funds in favour of low-cost index funds, and yet the vast majority of investors around the world either FE TRUSTNET continue to ignore it or, more likely, are blissfully unaware of it. Can you pick the 1%? As research by David Blake at Cass Business School and others has shown, only around 1 per cent of active managers beat the market over the long term on a risk- and cost-adjusted basis, which is about what you’d expect purely from random chance. If I knew who tomorrow’s winners were going to be, I would be first in the queue. But anyone who has studied fund performance will tell you that distinguishing luck from skill is extremely difficult, and picking a Only around 1 per cent of active managers beat the market over the long term on a risk- and cost- adjusted basis trustnet.com