Trustnet Magazine 57 December 2019 | 页面 12

Cover story “Investors need to make sure they aren’t seduced by low valuations and/or weak share prices with a high dividend yield” Proving its worth included a new thematic range from In the last quarter of 2019, value BlackRock and the Schroders Global stocks finally started to reverse Energy Transition fund. their long run of weak performance. Pascal Blanqué, chief investment Burdett says that some of the value officer at Amundi Asset Management, funds he holds are now among his wrote in The Financial Times: best performers for the year to date. “Environmental, social and governance However, few believe it heralds the factors are a pillar of investing, start of a surge for value strategies. “It holding more than $30tn of assets is more of an even fight. There hasn’t after impressive growth of 34 per cent been inflation, or rising rates, which over the past two years. So powerful would normally help value strategies,” is momentum, the fund industry will Burdett adds. most likely embrace a near 100 per cent Dan Whitestone, manager of the ESG-based model by 2030.” Throgmorton Investment Trust, also Morningstar data shows £4.4bn was doubts this is the start of a broader invested in ESG funds in the first nine reversal, pointing out that technology months of 2019: 70 per cent of those has changed the game: “Some market inflows headed into active funds. commentators believe the second half FE TRUSTNET [ 2019 IN REVIEW ] 12 / 13 of 2019 marks the start of the ‘value’ comeback. We disagree. Many shares and industries that are often thought of as ‘value’ are undergoing significant industry pressures, and in many cases lack the financial strength and business model flexibility to adapt to the structural changes brought about by technology disruption, which can result in fundamental changes in distribution, manufacturing and customer behaviour. “There are many companies that come to mind that we think are masquerading as ‘value’ investments just because they trade on a low price to adjusted earnings.” In particular, he believes many of these companies are paying dividends they can’t afford, which has led to under-investment in the business. Certainly, there have been a number of high-profile dividend cuts in 2019 and dividend cover among the biggest UK companies has started to look stretched. Whitestone adds: “Investors need to make sure they aren’t seduced by low valuations and/or weak share prices with a high dividend yield.” Trade wars were the other dominant factor for 2019. Negotiations continued, but markets seemed to learn to live with the uncertainty. With an election to win in 2020, Donald Trump needs to gain some concessions from the Chinese government that he can boast about to the US electorate. In the meantime, it appears that trade tariffs may be having a greater impact on the US than on China – this may change the balance of negotiating power. In recent years, the story has been surprisingly consistent – bonds have done better than expected, quality growth companies have prevailed in the equity market, monetary policy has driven markets – and 2019 was no exception. However, it is difficult to picture a repeat in 2020. trustnet.com