This year ’ s congressional race was the most animated campaign we can remember . Previous congressional elections on Guam have been typically subdued , almost like a monotonous routine .
FROM THE PUBLISHER ’ S DESK
The power of incumbency
The result of Guam ’ s congressional race on Nov . 5 did not exactly come as a surprise . It was pretty much consistent with Guam ’ s voting pattern .
The incumbent Republican James Moylan won his first reelection bid after commanding 53 percent of the votes cast in the delegate race . His Democratic challenger Ginger Cruz received nearly 47 percent . Previous congressional races similarly showed narrow leads in favor of the incumbent .
Historically , Guam voters have preferred the incumbent staying in Congress for many years . Madeleine Bordallo served from 2003 to 2019 . Robert Underwood was in Congress from 1993 to 2003 . Clearly , Guam voters opt for continuity .
In 2017 , Bordallo faced a congressional ethics investigation — which was never completed — regarding her living arrangements . While the ethics investigation hardly came up during the 2018 campaign , Bordallo lost the Democratic primary to Michael San Nicolas , who eventually assumed her seat in Congress . It wasn ’ t exactly the ethics probe that sealed her fate . Guam voters simply decided it was time for her to retire .
Incidentally , San Nicolas faced an ethics complaint in Congress as well . Had he run for reelection , would the congressional ethics investigation have influenced the voters ’ decision ? Obviously , the question is moot now . We never got to find the answer .
But San Nicolas ’ decision to challenge an incumbent governor in 2022 foreshadowed defeat . Every Guam governor had served for two terms .
In political campaigns , the advantages of incumbency are well entrenched . Such political edge is no mystery . Incumbents wield the powers of government , which
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This year ’ s congressional race was the most animated campaign we can remember . Previous congressional elections on Guam have been typically subdued , almost like a monotonous routine .
serve as their campaign machinery . They have ready-made platforms and their reelection campaigns are set in motion even before the election begins . Plus , donors are not known to switch bets .
Reelecting the incumbent to the House of Representatives is a political tradition that is not unique to Guam . It mirrors the trend in the national landscape . As the Center for Responsive Politics put it , “ Few things in life are more predictable than the chances of an incumbent member of the U . S . House of Representatives winning reelection .”
A study by the Salt Lake Community College noted that in the past 20 years , “ the lowest reelection rate for the House of Representatives was 85 percent , and the mean reelection rate is more than 94 percent .”
Just the same , Cruz gave Moylan a fright . This year ’ s congressional race was the most animated campaign we can remember . Previous congressional elections on Guam have been typically subdued , almost like a monotonous routine .
In a post-election statement , Moylan acknowledged that Cruz “ made this year ’ s elections exciting .”
She did . After her long absence on Guam , Cruz popped back up on island and instantly became a household name . She had the most ubiquitous political signs , splashed across the island , supplemented by an active social media presence and a grinding press release mill .
Cruz ’ s campaign was backed by a well-oiled political machinery and a host of endorsers . For a newcomer , she is politically savvy , eclipsing Moylan ’ s muted campaign .
But perhaps , Cruz ’ s assets might have been her own liabilities . Political endorsements don ’ t translate to victory when Guam voters cast their ballots . On the other hand , they tend to serve as a kiss of death if endorsements come from the politicians whom voters rejected in previous elections . Her well-crafted campaign exuded traditional politics that voters seem to be wary of .
At any rate , congressional continuity may not be so bad for Guam . One of the key advantages of congressional incumbency is the familiarity with the territory ’ s needs and expectations . It minimizes policy disruptions .
The House of Representatives resembles a social club , where territorial delegates don ’ t have voting power . House members don ’ t always understand Guam ’ s issues , but they are more likely to vote for their “ buddies .” House members often represent districts that have been deliberately gerrymandered to include voting blocs that support incumbents .
Moylan has planted the seeds , with several policy considerations that will reemerge in the next Congress ’ deliberations . And with a Republican majority in both houses of Congress and a Republican president in the White House , Guam might have better chances of influencing congressional decisions .
Publisher / Editor-in-Chief Mar-Vic Cagurangan publisher @ pacificislandtimes . com
Contributing Writers Raquel Bagnol Rubyjayne Buhain-Redila Zaldy Dandan Kambes Kesolei Theodore Lewis Brian Manabat Joyce McClure Gabriel McCoard Jack Niedenthal James Pearce Alex Rhowuniong Jayvee Vallejera Robert Underwood Aline Yamashita
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