TRITON Magazine Fall 2016 | Page 22

GAME THE RECORD

THE AMAZING

RACE

Legendary political scientist Sam Popkin weighs in

BY INGA KIDERRA
Sam Popkin UC San Diego professor of political science
Sam Popkin is a veteran of several presidential campaigns . The UC San Diego political science professor has been a consultant to Democratic presidential candidates , CBS News for polling , political parties in Canada and Europe , and the U . S . Departments of State and Defense . He is a regular contributor to major newspapers nationwide as well as the author of The Reasoning Voter and , most recently , The Candidate : What It Takes to Win — and Hold — the White House . This interview was conducted in late July , after balloons had dropped on both the Republican and Democratic national conventions .
The election is historic in many obvious ways , but are there other ways you consider it historic , too ? There are a few . I ’ m laughing at the fact that a Jew almost won the Democratic nomination and that ’ s not even considered a story anymore . That tells you something about how far the country has come for Irish , Italians , African Americans and Jews . So the fact that it ’ s hardly worth discussing that somebody who is a New Yorker and a Jew could come close to a nomination is important .
I think that 50 years from now , this election will be remembered as much for the implosion of the Republican Party as for the candidacy of Hillary Clinton , whether she wins or loses .
Is the “ implosion of the Republican Party ” going to stick , or do you think this is a blip ? I would bet any amount that the Republican Party is here for a very long time ; it is very hard to kill a party in America . But what happens to the party — what direction it takes , where it goes — is entirely up for grabs . We ’ ve never had a situation with such diffuse control of a political party . It will be at least eight years , whether Donald Trump wins or loses , before the party knows where it stands and whether the internal crisis is over .
Is the Democratic Party falling apart right now , too , or just the Republican ? No . Right now , and I stress right now , the Democratic Party is the party that wants government to work . A lot of people in the Republican Party — not all , but enough — are much happier when people don ’ t trust government and don ’ t want government to work efficiently . The Democratic Party has a certain number of core commitments to goals that require a viable federal government that can do its job . People who want to limit pollution , develop cleaner energy and improve education need an effective , popular government . People who don ’ t want more regulation , or taxes for public programs they don ’ t need or believe in , would prefer lower levels of trust and fewer programs .
In talking with The Wall Street Journal , you gave Donald Trump a 1 in 6 chance of winning . Would you still give the same odds post-conventions ? I said 1 in 6 because when people would say to me “ Oh ! So I don ’ t have to worry ! It ’ s 1 in 6 ,” I could say to them , “ 1 in 6 is the same odds as Russian roulette . If you ’ re not worried about Donald Trump , then you shouldn ’ t worry about playing Russian roulette either .” I think it ’ s a little better than 1 in 6 ; Donald Trump probably has more like a 1 in 3 chance . At least 40 percent of the country is uncomfortable with immigration , fearful that expanding
20 TRITON | FALL 2016