THE CONTRARY
This year ’ s atmospheric impact goes well beyond storms . BY ROB MONROE
Southern California may have braced for rains that never came , but this year ’ s massive El Niño made its mark nonetheless . While a high-pressure ridge sent much of the expected downpours north , profound effects of the phenomenon gave scientists at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego much to interpret on several fronts :
01 . OCEAN TEMPERATURE STRATIFICATION A classic El Niño condition involves sharp temperature contrasts between the ocean surface and bands of deeper water that cut off the supply of nutrients . Phytoplankton at the surface diminish substantially in a change that reverberates through the ocean food web .
Scripps biological oceanographer Mark Ohman led a cruise to collect data that could help infer if changes in marine life will occur in El Niño years . “ We expect to see less total biomass , less living stuff ,” says Ohman . “ El Niños have changed traditional predator-prey relationships in both directions .”
02 . ODD MIGRATION PATTERNS One of the most obvious signs of El Niño this year was the continued appearance of fish and other marine creatures in places where they don ’ t normally live . “ Subtropical species such as Pacific bluefin tuna , opah , marlin and wahoo were observed well north of their usual ranges ,” said Cisco Werner , director of NOAA ’ s Southwest Fisheries Science Center . “ These observations can give us a glimpse into how our future ecosystems will look under more sustained warming conditions .”
03 . SHIFTING SANDS It ’ s common for energized waves of winter ocean to erode coastline sand from beaches , but while five or six feet is average , this year saw more than 10 feet of vertical erosion along the coast .
All that sand goes somewhere else , however . Several Southern California estuaries — and even the Tijuana River — were cut off from the ocean by displaced sand and cobblestones . “ There ’ s a public perception that El Niño never came , but it certainly did from an ocean perspective ,” said Scripps coastal oceanographer Sarah Giddings , who waded through several estuaries to measure how El Niño changed their internal workings .
04 . SEA LEVEL SURGE While this year ’ s El Niño brought less overall rainfall , it did bring very short , intense rains at abnormal times of the year . “ These rains led to severe flash floods in several cities across the region , exemplifying how these climatic shifts can impact our businesses and communities ,” says Laura Engeman , manager of the San Diego Regional Climate Collaborative , an information-sharing network of local cities , universities and other entities . “ It is important that we plan now to make us more resilient to the impacts of these climatic extremes .”
Imperial Beach , for example , has begun assessing the vulnerability of its coastline to sea-level rise . “ Imperial Beach experienced the most severe coastal flooding in more than 20 years this year on our beachfront and bayfront ,” says the city ’ s mayor , Serge Dedina , Marshall ’ 87 . “ That experience — which we worked with our residents to prepare for — has only reinforced our decision to embark on our comprehensive sea-level rise and coastal flooding adaptation planning process . This year was a sign of things to come .”
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