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Global Repercussions
UC San Diego ’ s researchers are also thinking about the impact abroad . Also at GPS , professor Jennifer Burney specializes in the relationship between climate change and food security around the world . In the Sertão region of northeast Brazil , for example , changes to the ecosystem have forced dairy farmers to make environmentally harmful decisions , such as clear-cutting forests when there isn ’ t enough forage for their cattle . Burney is now working with a local organization , Adapta Sertão , to measure the impact of new irrigation systems , water catchments and cattle feeds on both the ecosystem as well as the economic wellbeing of the farmers .
“ The area has gone from semi-humid to almost arid ,” says Burney . “ It ’ s a great place to study adaptation for some bad reasons — there are a lot of really poor communities without adaptive capacity or the ability to absorb shock .”
Victor echoes this concern . “ The biggest impact will be on societies who are unable to prepare and adapt ,” he says . “ They tend to be poor and vulnerable .”
This is just one of the ways an increasingly global economy has made the situation more complicated , particularly when it comes to emissions . While developed countries have managed to cut their emissions in recent years , they ’ re often shifting that burden to other countries by importing energyintensive products such as concrete or steel . Says Victor , “ The achievement disappears because they ’ re importing emissions in the form of goods and not even getting charged .”
Suggesting border tariffs to cover emissions can shut down a diplomatic conversation quickly . “ This is an area where our findings were cut from the report distributed to policymakers ,” Victor says . “ The moment you start talking about trade effects , you have to start talking about individual countries .” Which is precisely where talks begin to break down .
Dismantling the traditional approach to international discussions could lead to progress . According to Victor , large-scale treaties such as the Kyoto Protocol are simply no longer effective . “ For many years , negotiations have been designed so that everybody gets a word in but nothing gets done ,”
“ The biggest impact will be on societies who are unable to prepare and adapt ; they tend to be poor and vulnerable .”
explains Victor , who explores this concept in his popular 2011 book , Global Warming Gridlock .
A recent series of UN-sponsored conferences on climate bring this gridlock into sharp relief . During a recent meeting in Bonn , Germany , developed countries wanted to focus on reducing greenhouse emissions while poorer countries called for commitments on climate finance , technology transfer and adaptation to global warming .
“ The more people involved , the more complex it ’ s going to be ,” says Victor .
GPS Professor Jennifer Burney studies how climate change affects global food security .
40 TRITON | FALL 2015