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TRESVISTA FINANCIAL SERVICES GEM considers three major components of 2. Recession: A recession is marked by a fall in the entrepreneurship: attitudes, activity and aspirations. real GDP of an economy. It is usually initiated by The new entrepreneurs, with the right attitude and a macroeconomic shock – collapse of an industry aspirations help improve the market conditions by (banking, real estate), mounting fiscal debt, developing their firms and providing opportunities to collapse of the government, etc. There are fewer others. opportunities in the markets leading to stagnation in the growth of the economy. People tend to be We believe that the GEM model illustrates that macroeconomics is correlated to entrepreneurial activity at every phase: boom or recession. Correlation between business cycles and entrepreneurial activity in an economy People tend to be more risk averse in economic downturns 1. Growth: Under this phase an economy witnesses more risk averse in economic downturns. The a boom and increased activity. There is macrobusiness world sees job cuts leading to a decline in level stability in the economy. Opportunities are the disposable income of consumers. People spend plenty and people are willing to take more risks. less and thus demand declines. As spending drops, The labor market is strong and banks are willing to returns for enterprises drop further, leading to lend money at competitive rates. The growth phase further unemployment. is marked by increase in innovations, opening up of new market opportunities, and a generally high 3. Trough: The lowest point of the economy in the business cycle is called the trough. National income risk-appetite. declines substantially, bankruptcy increases, As the growth phase evolves, entrepreneurial expenditure declines and economic activity activity picks up such that it becomes the driving slows down; leading to further increase in the force behind growth. unemployment. National inflation borders around The growth phase is marked by increase in innovations, opening up of new market opportunities, and a generally high risk-appetite October 2011 | INDUSTRY INTELLIGENCE 15