Insights
Islands under siege by climate change or China ?
When island leaders are asked what is the major security challenge in the island Pacific , they uniformly reply “ climate change .” This has been repeatedly stated by the Pacific Island Forum in the past decade and in the recently completed COP 26 Forum in Scotland .
Regional leaders were hoping for a declaration of war on climate change , but instead they got a bunch of heated rhetoric . The rhetoric was exponentially hotter than the 1.5 degrees set as a target by islanders . But the declaration of war in terms of action never happened .
There is something striking about island states , especially atoll nations , sounding the alarm about “ existential threats .” Their nations will literally disappear if war isn ’ t declared on climate change . As sea levels and water temperatures rise , their future is literally at stake . Marshallese Health Minister Bruce Billimon dramatically stated that atoll nations are under siege .
But declaring war on climate change is not like declaring war on another nation . It seems amorphous . We only know when we lose as measured in centimeters and degrees . But we won ’ t know when we are winning . It has the danger of becoming like the war on terror . We are painfully aware of how that turned out between declarations of “ mission accomplished ,” prolonged conflict and ignominious withdrawals .
For those who are responsible for preparing for conflict and actual war , strategic and security threats appear very different . We are in the midst of
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These Islands
By Robert A Underwood
a war of words and perceptions about the competition between China and the United States . There are military maneuvers designed to show the seriousness of the matter and strength of coalitions involved . Last year , the Quad Nations demonstrated coordination of military capacity near Guahan in Malabar 21 . The Quad nations are India , Japan , Australia and the United States .
This is accompanied by discussions about military basing in the freely associated states in Micronesia , complicated missile defense systems in Guahan and rhetorical flourishes about China as a “ pacing threat .” The Brookings Institute has stated that China uses corruption and “ elite capture ” to undermine governance systems in the Pacific . To Americans , Australians and Chinese the security threats in the Pacific may appear very different from those seen by Pacific island leaders .
For military planners , the immediate security threat and disrupter is China , its military growth , its influence and its stateowned enterprises . This doesn ’ t mean that the defense establishments are unmindful of climate change . There is a growing literature about climate change and its effect on military facilities , equipment and force projection . The military is always mindful about social , scientific and political trends . In many ways , it is quicker to react to them . But the immediate threat is China .
The military response to climate change will be about how it affects their operations . It won ’ t be long before we see greater fuel efficiency in militarized vehicles . Australia has already developed a prototype for an all-terrain electric vehicle for their defense forces .
The U . S . seems to be a bit behind in that effort . If only Australia were as forward thinking in their attitudes toward coal and natural gas as they are in the “ greening ” of their military vehicles . But there is general concern about the military contribution to the carbon “ boot ” print by all nations .
But that is not the same as seeing climate change itself as a security threat . For some , it is a complicating factor . But real security threats come from other nations which are challenging your authority and influence . Bridging the gap between an “ existential threat ” in which we are under siege and analyzing complicated Chinese maneuverings will require major effort . Admirals , generals and a bunch of thinktanks will focus on the Chinese . The rash of articles and interest in Guahan , Micronesia and the other islands has grown substantially .
In the meantime , island health and foreign ministers as well as activists will focus on the siege which holds their islands hostage . They will attract
I have heard some military planners refer to the islanders ’ cries about climate change as “ attention grabbing .” When you are under siege , you need all the attention you can get .
headlines . But whether they generate major activity is uncertain . I am not sure that this gap can be narrowed . I have heard some military planners refer to the islanders ’ cries about climate change as “ attention grabbing .” When you are under siege , you need all the attention you can get . There appears to be some condescension in that perspective that sees islanders as simply complaining about a natural trend when the real threat is from China .
The pandemic should give us pause to think about our islands and how they are used . From my home , I could set the time of the day by the airlines that landed and took off at the airport . Those reminders of my daily rhythm are gone for the time being as tourists are largely absent . I do hear the noises of jets at odd and unpredictable hours of the day . They are all associated with the military and could come from any of the Quad countries . The carbon boot print is stronger than ever .
Dr . Robert Underwood is the former president of the University of Guam and former member of the U . S . House of Representatives . Send feedback to anacletus2010 @ gmail . com .