Russia ’ s invasion of Ukraine and the West ’ s response of imposing sanctions on Russia are forcing a reckoning as far as global energy policy is concerned . The International Energy Agency ( IEA ) forecasts that the ongoing war and the U . S . sanctions may together reduce Russian oil exports by at least 3 million barrels per day — more than 4 percent of global supplies , which is a huge chunk of the delicately balanced world energy market . Some energy analysts are forecasting that oil prices could spike up to $ 200 per barrel later this year , exacerbating inflation and triggering a global recession . We ’ re facing the biggest energy crisis in many decades , with supply chains seizing up and products made from or with oil and gas ( notably fertilizers ) suddenly becoming scarce and expensive . Scylla , therefore , calls out : “ Drill more . Lift sanctions on Venezuela and Iran . Beg Saudi Arabia to increase output .” But if we go that route , we only deepen our dependency on fossil fuels , aggravating the climate monster Charybdis .
The IEA was created in the aftermath of the 1970s oil shocks to inform policymakers in times of energy supply crisis . The agency recently issued a 10-point emergency plan to reduce oil demand and help nations deal with looming shortages owing to Russia ’ s invasion of Ukraine . Its advice includes lowering speed limits , instituting car-free Sundays , encouraging working from home , and making public transport cheaper and more widely available .
All of these are good suggestions — and are very similar to what my colleagues and I have been advocating for nearly 20 years ( some were even part of U . S . energy policy 50 years ago ). Fossil fuel supply problems shouldn ’ t come as a surprise : we treat these fuels as though they were an inexhaustible birthright ; but they are , of course , finite and depleting substances . We have extracted and burned the best of them first , leaving lower-quality and more polluting fuels for later — hence the recent turn toward fracked oil and gas and growing reliance on heavy crude from Venezuela and “ tar sands ” bitumen from Canada . Meanwhile , rather belatedly , it has gradually dawned on economists that these “ unconventional ” fuels typically require higher rates of investment and deliver lower profits to the energy industry , unless fuel prices rise to economy-crushing levels .
Indeed , it ’ s as though our leaders have worked overtime making sure we ’ re unprepared for an inevitable energy dilemma . We ’ ve neglected public transportation , and many Americans who are not part of the white-collar workforce have been pushed out from expensive cities to suburbs and beyond , with no alternative other than driving everywhere . While automakers have turned their focus to manufacturing electric vehicles ( EVs ), these still account for a small fraction of the car market , and most of today ’ s gas-guzzling cars will still be on the road a decade or two from now . Crucially , there are as yet only exploratory efforts underway to transition trucking and shipping — the mainstays of global supply chains — and find more sustainable alternatives . That creates a unique vulnerability : the current worldwide diesel shortage could hammer the economy even if the government and the energy industry somehow come up with enough gasoline to keep motorists cruising to jobs and shopping malls .