“ Two years ago , people thought the two parties were about equally inclined to violence , but that perception has changed pretty dramatically ,” she explained . “ The most important numbers here … are the independents . By [ a margin of ] 16 points , the independents say the Democrats are not inclined to violence . By 21 points , the independents say the Republicans are inclined to violence . This is a sea change in terms of attitudes , and a very , very important development that has come out of what has been revealed in the hearings .”
The select committee hearings , which will resume in September , began on June 9 . In April , Lake ’ s polling found that 24 percent of likely voters were aware of the hearings . By June that number was 40 percent . By mid-July , 60 percent said that they had heard “ a lot ” about the hearings and an additional 26 percent said that they had heard “ some ” about the series of eight hearings .
“ With all the distractions and all the things going on in the country , that is just a phenomenal level of penetration ,” she said . When broken down by party , 96 percent of Democrats support the House investigation , as do 62 percent of independents , and 29 percent of Republicans .
Among independents , who may vote for either Democrats or Republicans depending on the election — and therefore are coveted swing voters — more than 70 percent found the following revelations from the hearings were “ very ” or “ somewhat ” concerning , Lake reported :
• Trump was told that his supporters had weapons and did nothing to stop them . ( 79 percent ).
• Trump tried to get security removed because “ they ’ re not here to hurt me .” ( 76 percent ).
• Trump was told ahead of time that his January 6 rally could turn violent . ( 79 percent ).
• Trump ’ s call for a January 6 rally and protest that he said , “ will be wild .” ( 74 percent ).
• Trump ’ s reported intimidation of January 6 committee witnesses . ( 73 percent ).
• Trump ’ s former campaign manager saying he was “ asking for civil war .” ( 75 percent ).
• Trump ’ s stolen election lies , after he was repeatedly told that he lost . ( 73 percent ).
• Rioters saying that Trump ’ s rhetoric “ got everyone riled up .” ( 73 percent ).
The level of concern among independents dropped off when asked how worried they were “ about a future January 6th-like attack on our country .” While 91 percent of Democrats were concerned , and 31 percent of Republicans were concerned , only 50 percent of independents said they were concerned . However , among people who Lake called “ surge voters ,” meaning they don ’ t usually vote in midterm elections but did in 2018 , 91 percent were concerned .
“ What are the three big takeaways here ?” Lake said , summarizing her latest research about the House investigation ’ s political impact .
“ The public has been paying a lot of attention , even with everything that ’ s going on ,” she said . “ That is bipartisan . [ And ] it has an enormous penetration with independent voters . “ The public has concluded that this was not just a spontaneous one-and-done bystander event ,” she continued . “ They have concluded that this was planned . This was funded . This was encouraged and that it ’ s continued . And then it was anchored on a number of actions by Trump Republicans , and by Trump himself , and a number of false claims .
“ They are worried about the future . And they ’ re willing to take future action . They are stunned that there are candidates running for state and local office as well as Congress , who supported and encouraged the insurrection , the attacks on the country , and they want to vote against those candidates who they think shouldn ’ t be running to begin with .”
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