The TRADE 62 - Q4 2019 | Page 62

[ M A R K E T R E V I E W | 2 0 2 0 P R E D I C T I O N S ] Anish Puaar Naz Quadri Michael Horan European market structure analyst, Rosenblatt Securities global head of enterprise data science, Bloomberg director, head of trading, Pershing Depending on the outcome of Brexit, we may see politically-driven liquidity fragmentation that could hurt investor perfor- mance. If Britain leaves the EU without a deal, MiFID II’s share trading obligation will restrict where certain shares can be traded, according to whether market participants are based in the UK or in the European Union. The European Securities and Markets Authority has laid out the EU’s stance on this issue, but the Financial Conduct Authority is yet to make its position clear. London could lose its position as the home of alternative pan-Euro- pean equity markets as trading moves to the continent, which could raise transaction costs. Longer-term, we could see further regulatory divergence, with distinct rules in the UK and EU for periodic auctions, systematic internalisers and commission unbundling. Several EU regulators have complained about the new unbundling regime, while the FCA has lauded it. With the European Commission already planning targeted adjustments to MiFID II, these fissures may appear sooner than expected. In 2020, we will continue to see the democratisation of data and proliferation of artifi- cial intelligence (AI) reshaping the financial services industry. The front-office was the first to fund and research AI’s potential to unearth valuable insights and possibly improve portfolio strategy and perfor- mance, and next year will be critical as organisations evolve the culture necessary to realise these benefits firm-wide. Commitment from senior man- agement to foster firm-wide collaboration and investment in data-driven technology will be pivotal to establish and spread a more data-centric culture across organisations. This cultural transformation should be approached like any strategic shift a firm under- takes, by allocating capital and rethinking the personnel and 62 // TheTrade // Winter 2019 skills neces- sary to succeed. Data science talent, for example, will be at a premium as financial firms look to harness the power of ubiqui- tous data lakes for enhanced computing and advanced data analytics across the front, middle and back-office functions. The relentless march of algo- rithmic trading into execution workflows will con- tinue to add to rising volumes in closing auctions across Europe. This will show more intensity around blue chips stock and ETFs as passive investing takes a further hold on equity trading investment profiles, further compounding the skew of liquidity disper- sion towards the close. Intr- aday trading will see growing use of systematic internaliser liquidity and periodic auctions as the sell-side attempts to squeeze implicit trading costs as low as they can through- out the coming year.