The TRADE 62 - Q4 2019 | Page 52

[ I N - D E P T H | C L O S I N G founder of Aquis Exchange, one of the market operators that has introduced an alternative closing auction mechanism in Europe, also points to other trends in the market that have caused the percentage of volumes to move so dramatically from continuous trad- ing to closing auctions, although he argues it remains unclear exactly what has driven the trend. “The problem is nobody out there can actually tell you whether this trend is structural or cyclical,” Haynes says. “What we do know is that more business is being conducted in the close than ever in the past, and to a level where- by it is getting significant and, in some ways, the trend is probably not healthy for the market. Is this passive trading which demands the closing price? Frankly, I don’t buy that argument. I believe it is a combination of different things, some which are structural and some which are cyclical.” The cyclical part which Haynes refers to is a clear reduction in total volumes across the European eq- uities trading landscape this year, including in the closing auctions, as a seemingly relentless risk-off sentiment continues to dominate the market. David Howson, chief operating officer at Cboe Europe, which has also launched an alter- native closing auction mechanism, adds that the combination of low volumes, volatility and the rise of passive investing has made it challenging for traders to execute during the day, particularly larger sized trades. “Over the past 12 months, the risk-off environment that markets have endured due to uncertainties around Brexit and trade wars has caused volumes and volatility to decline, creating much thinner markets intraday on the lit books,” Howson comments. “That leaves 52 // TheTrade // Winter 2019 A U C T I O N S ] “It has led to thinner volumes during continuous trading and increased intraday volatility, which is bad news as it precipitates an instable market because price formation is unreliable.” DANIEL NICHOLLS, HEAD OF TRADING, HERMES INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT less room to transact large posi- tions intraday, which means more participants turn to alternative mechanisms and ultimately closing auctions to execute their trades.” Liquidity begets liquidity As the volume profile of the market has changed, so have the volume-profiling algorithms. The volume-weighted average price (VWAP) algorithm, for example, maps distribution of liquidity throughout the day to an order, meaning as volumes in the closing auction increase, the more the algorithm will route orders there. Essentially then, algorithmic trading is accelerating the shift to the close. As the concentration of liquidity and volumes in closing auctions has become more promi- nent, buy-side traders have adapted strategies as intraday liquidity has become harder to find. “This has been an important for us because we have been adapt- ing to it quite recently,” says Eric Champenois, head of the trading desk at asset manager Unigestion. “There is not much volume in the morning now, so we tend to be more passive during that period than previously and our volume participation during these hours has been impacted. It’s mostly a negative development for investors because for at least fifty percent of the trading day it’s difficult to find proper liquidity.” It’s a case of liquidity begets liquidity. As volumes are forced to the end of the day, the closing auctions are fast becoming the only place to execute in size in the mar- ket today. When news or informa- tion comes out, it’s important that traders have the ability to engage in continuous trading, but as the buy-side struggles to interact with intraday liquidity, the market has had to hold positions to trade at the close, which is not considered to be a positive development for investors. The ability to offload risk throughout the day is consid- ered a strong sign that a market is well-functioning. Hermes’ Nicholls echoes Champ- enois, adding that the migration of volumes to the close is even more problematic for traders that have different benchmarks due to subscriptions and redemp- tions in the fund. If money hits a fund, a trader will be looking to transfer the money into equities as soon as possible. Traders can’t sit on an order for an entire day before placing it in the closing auction, and even then, they risk losing out altogether due to the uncertainty of execution and price at the end of the day. “When money arrives into the fund it hits at different times of the day, the trader has to aim to transfer that money into the price of equities at that time to minimise slippage,” Nicholls says. “The prices in the clos- ing auction can be wildly different,