The TRADE 60 | Page 64

[ I N - D E P T H | A R T I F I C I A L T he application of artifi- cial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) technologies in financial services is being increasingly positioned at the vanguard of technology-focused industry discussion and strate- gies, as discussions focus on the practical implications of deploying such tools beyond middle- and back-office functions. As margins are squeezed and costs continue to rise in light of fee compression and an increased regulatory environ- ment, the buy-side is increasingly turning to AI and ML in the search for further efficiencies. There can be no doubt that huge increases in data and trading volumes that the buy-side is now transacting, is forcing the need for new technologies. While taking part in a panel discussion at this year’s TradeTech Europe con- ference, AXA Investment Man- agement’s global head of trading, Daniel Leon, told delegates that his firm has no choice but to invest in new technologies because his trading desk simply cannot keep up with the sheer amount of data and information required to maintain its trading activity. “We are not able to do what we used to do 20 years ago,” said Leon. “Yes, you can have a specialist on leverage loan, but on the big credit market or medium and small-cap I N T E L L I G E N C E ] “We have to reconstitute the experience that the trader used to have: What has traded, what was the liquidity and what was the market impact. You can’t do that on a comprehensive basis.” DANIEL LEON, AXA INVESTMENT MANAGERS you cannot have all that informa- tion on one guy. We are trying as well to solve problems that we used to do a long time ago. For the more vintage traders it used to be that the trader would know the market and what’s traded for one month, what happened last week, they had information and that’s what typical trading used to be. “But now we have to gain effi- ciency, we have to trade so many bonds that you can’t ask one trader to remember everything, to know that this sector last week had this event. We have to reconstitute the experience that the trader used to have: What has traded, what was the liquidity and what was the market impact. You can’t do that on a comprehensive basis.” BlackRock’s global head of trading, Supurna VedBrat, echoed Leon’s sentiment on the impor- tance of AI and data for the future of the industry at this year’s US Fixed Income Leaders Summit in Philadelphia. Focusing on fixed income markets, VedBrat told “The world isn't that flat and there are certainly unusual things that happen in life every day that don't follow the patterns and I am not sure that we are 100% there, where the AI is able to interpret all of those black swan events and build them into a model.” IAN MAWDSLEY, REFINITIV 64 // TheTrade // Summer 2019 delegates that not only will AI be a key element in the next evolution of buy-side trading operations, but it will likely morph the role of the buy-side trader in the process. “Data science and AI give us the ability to truly augment human intelligence with computing power, and you are able to do that at scale. I think it is going to materially change trading strategies that the buy-side uses. You don’t need human intelligence to pick trades, so you can automate a lot of that flow and the trader is now much more of a risk manager overseeing that the market is working the way we expect, and if not, they have the ability to step in and correct it,” VedBrat said. Ahead of the curve Research from TABB Group earlier this year has, in fact, suggested that the buy-side is slightly ahead of the curve in terms of AI adoption com- pared to the sell-side and exchange operators. Over 80% of asset man- agement respondents stated that they were at least in the planning or research phase of implementing AI, compared to 73% of their sell- side counterparts and exchange operators. At the same time, more than 60% of buy-siders said they expect spending on AI to increase over the course of this year. According to the research, the majority of asset managers agree that actionable insight is the biggest benefit of deploying AI [ I N - D E P T H technology, followed by increased efficiency and automation, strategy selection and risk management. However, there is a false percep- tion can sometimes be that AI and ML are relatively new to institu- tional trading; the truth is that both buy- and sell-side organisations have been exploring, developing and implementing such technolo- gies for many years now. “The key takeaway from all of this is that most capital market par- ticipants are bullish on the use of AI and big data in the near future. It is high on the change agenda at most firms, with the main use case being around the investment process, but also in trade execution and operations,” the research from TABB Group concluded. As with most technology trends though, hyperbole has a way of dominating the discussion. Similar- ly to the way blockchain exploded into the financial markets’ con- sciousness in 2016, AI and ML have become industry buzzwords, or at the very least a misleading shorthand, that risks overstating practical applications. Ian McWilliams, investment | A R T I F I C I A L analyst at Aberdeen Asset Manage- ment, detailed how the under- standing of what ML technologies are capable of is being distorted by a lack of understanding and exag- geration, during a panel discussion at TradeTech FX Europe at the end of last year. “I joke that when you are adver- tising externally you say AI, but in- side you say machine learning and actually you are just doing logistic regression and things like that,” he said. “I don’t think that’s disingen- uous, maybe it’s a bit of hyperbole, but it’s not wrong in terms of definitions, because when we talk about machine learning it really is anything where you are getting an algorithm to learn from data.” “We’re taking a lot of market signals and sentiment signals, forecasting what markets are going to do in the future and using those to build trading strategies.” McWilliams explained that the hype around elements of ML such as deep learning, image recognition and natural language processing (NLP) are distorting expectations around what are essentially tools to better model data for trading strategy decisions, particularly when it comes to conversations with fund managers. “The interesting thing we need to think about as an industry and maybe where attitudes need to change is around interpretability of the models, which is a big ques- tion in a lot of areas, not just finance,” he said. “Whenever we come out with a trade a question we get asked by the traditional fund managers is ‘Why is it making that trade?’ and they gener- ally expect a very causal, A to B explanation, but that often defeats the point of these very complex I N T E L L I G E N C E ] algorithms. The middle ground is not good enough to just say that the algorithm says to do it, so we are doing it, but there needs to be more conversation between the quant people and more traditional people to understand there is a trade-off there.” Beyond the middle-office As asset managers continue to experiment with AI and ML, the goal has always been to automate manual and often repetitive tasks for greater efficiency and cost savings, freeing up time for traders to focus on more pressing tasks or complex order flow. But, accord- ing to market participants and technologists, the use of AI and ML elements are now permeating into more intricate parts of the business. AI and ML are beginning to show value when it comes to pricing and seeking liquidity, chal- lenges that are often highlighted by buy-side traders in the current market conditions. “The simple trade automation, the idea of creating rules to take some of the more liquid or easier to trade orders off the books, makes Issue 60 // TheTradeNews.com // 65