The TRADE 59 - Q1 2019 | Page 45

[ M A R K E T R E V I E W changes in derivatives clearing. In the case of interest rate swaps, he says, France has found that there are many technical and liquidity problems involved in creating new capability and transferring existing positions. “It’s not as easy as that to build from scratch. Listed derivatives are a silo as they have to be cleared on the spot,” Giannoccaro notes. However, the economic rationale for euro-area institutions offering derivatives clearing in the UK will start to change. To be able to continue to offer listed derivative clearing services in the UK, CACEIS is obliged to study the creation of a new funded unit in the UK, for which there is little or no economic or industrial rationale. This would mean more systems and personnel would be requried, and the risk for the industry as a whole is that costs for the client will increase. “Access to the UK market will become more expensive. There is a risk that clients will decide to invest elsewhere,” explains Giannoccaro. Philip Forkan head of derivatives, clearing and collateral management at WSNGC, a consultancy for banks and brokers, agrees that Brexit uncertainty has created concerns about bottlenecks and the time to get things done. The one-year equivalence agreement, he says, “gives more of a window” and will help to ensure that the cliff edge is avoided. “UK-domiciled funds are currently experiencing outflows which are going into Euros and Dollars instead. The need for portfolio rebalancing means that the uncertainty is leading to an increase in derivatives volumes,” Forkan says. However, Forkan doesn’t anticipate that Brexit will lead to market disruption. “Derivatives markets are quite robust,” he says, but what the markets need is “certainty and clarity – even if it’s not good news.” He does predict a long-term process of fragmenta- tion which could become self-reinforcing: “Clearing will be more regionally than centrally-based. Once fragmentation starts, it becomes easier to break down existing positions,” Forkan adds. Many countries, such as the US for example, may want to claw back clearing in their own currencies. US institutions such as ICE, he says, are “looking at this very intently.” | E U R O P E A N C L E A R I N G ] inated swaps by the end of 2019. This is no secret to UK-based com- petitors, with the chief executive of LCH, Daniel Maguire, telling the UK House of Lords in mid-Febru- ary that the uncertainty caused by Brexit was handing the advantage “Derivatives markets are quite robust but what the markets need is certainty and clarity – even if it’s not good news.” PHILIP FORKAN, HEAD OF DERIVATIVES, CLEARING AND COLLATERAL MANAGEMENT, WSNGC to overseas CCPS, in particular German institutions. It remains difficult to say exactly when and if Eurex’s target will be reached, says Matthias Grau- lich, a member of Eurex Clearing executive board. “There is nothing natural about a year-end when a new market is being built.” However, Graulich explains the euro-denominated swaps business is progressing well, and Eurex now has a market share of 11%. January was a record month with average daily volumes of about ¤140 billion, compared with ¤50 billion in 2018. Long-dated swaps also saw their Behaviour changes One company that hopes to benefit from Brexit is Eurex, the derivatives exchange owned by Deutsche Börse. Eurex has targeted a 25% share of euro-denom- Issue 59 // TheTradeNews.com // 45