The Median Voter Theorem
BACKGROUND INFORMATION
The median voter theorem is a mathematical result which states that majority rule
will produce the outcome most preferred by the median voter.
The median voter is the voter exactly in the middle of the distribution.
In 1948 Duncan Black developed the original median voter model. It did, however,
take until 1957 to become a well known and popular way of demonstrating economic
voting strategies. Today, it is one of the most widely used models of voting behavior
in the economic world.
EXAMPLE OF THE MEDIAN VOTER MODEL IN IRELAND TODAY
This particular example was formulated using statistics regarding the field of social
welfare in Ireland (as given in the 2014 budget) as an example of the median voter
model. We will look at the effect of this voting practice in relation to child benefit.
The below bar chart shows how the preferred amount of child benefit (as
decided by 125 voters) is distributed over seven options. These options range from
€0 to €260. It is clear that the results display a median voter of €130 which was, as a
result, selected as a fair monthly rate of child benefit by the Irish Government.