Let ’ s be frank here . Since the 2016 presidential election , anyone who claims to have a firm handle on predicting election results is delusional , dishonest or both . The simple truth is that the American people will continue to surprise the experts and pundits , and I do not expect election 2022 to be any different . Add to that an unsettled economy , high gas prices , an out-of-control housing market , Supreme Court turmoil and war in Eastern Europe , and it is anyone ’ s guess what happens come November .
But having said that , there is one key factor we can lean on as we set expectations for election night 2022 .
OUT-PARTY PICKS UP SEATS IN MIDTERM ELECTIONS One near-universal reality of midterm ( non-presidential ) elections is that the party holding the presidency will lose seats in the Congress . This is especially true in the U . S . House of Representatives . Even though each election will have specific issues that are important to voters , the out-party , in this case Republicans , has picked up an average of more than two dozen House seats in midterm elections over the modern era of American politics . The only exceptions to this rule are 1998 and 2002 .
With a current party split of 220 Democratic seats to 213 Republican seats in the U . S . House , if history stays true , the Republicans will easily take control of the chamber . When we consider the economy , gas prices and inflation , generally , it is hard to see how the historical out-party trend is not repeated in 2022 . Retirements in the House also favor a Republican takeover , with 31 Democrats not seeking re-election to only 18 for Republicans . Retirements mean open seats with no incumbency advantage .
While the Senate tends to follow the same out-party rule in general , the party of the president has gained seats or remained even in five midterm elections since 1946 . In most years , however , the out-party does very well , with a five-or-more seat pickup common over the same period . The current party split in the Senate is 50-50 . As with the House , history suggests Republicans will take control of the chamber . The only variable is the high number of Republicans announcing retirement from office . By midsummer , five Republican Senators had announced their retirement , with three in the highly competitive states of Ohio , North Carolina and Pennsylvania . These open seats may prove crucial to party control of the chamber .
REDISTRICTING The other major factor leading to a complicated election forecast is nationwide redistricting . After each census , district lines for state and federal offices are redrawn . In some states , this is done by the legislatures , while in others , nonpartisan commissions do the work . In every case , however , we can ’ t be sure of outcomes until after at least one election under the new lines .
Media outlets across the country are predicting the new lines to help one party here , the other party there , and so on , but we really don ’ t know what the impact will be until we see it in action . This is especially true this year because legal challenges to districting maps are being filed all over the nation and many will take months to complete .
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