The Saber and Scroll Journal Volume 7, Issue 1, Winter 2018 | Page 31

Letter to the Editor—World War One Will Begin Five Years from
Now: How Frederic Harrison Predicted the Onset of the Great War for
Civilization
Daniel C. Ross
The centenary of the armistice agreement of the War to End All Wars
ironically arrives after a century of ceaseless conflict. At no time during this one
hundred year period has there been worldwide peace. However, World War I was
the first of a two-part series of world wars that effectively ended warfare among
European nations. Many policymakers for the past century—Winston Churchill
and Harry Truman among many others—took extraordinary measures to prevent
another world war from transpiring. The formation of the United Nations (UN),
the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and the European Union (EU)
served to help reduce the likelihood of member nations declaring war on each
other. However, these member nations continue to participate in foreign military
engagements and many military and policy leaders still devise strategies to reduce
and eventually end these conflicts. 1
But, WWI also inspired military theorists Quincy Wright and Lewis F.
Richardson to launch a new discipline aimed at scientifically predicting new wars
before they begin. 2 This endeavor is valuable to the peace process, because the
predictability of war tends to increase the opportunity for states to avoid it. 3 Two
recent products of this discipline include the Steps-to-War model and the Risk
Barometer for War thesis. 4 The Steps-to-War model utilizes the scientific method
to identify independent variables—such as territorial disputes, alliances, and arms
races—predicating the dependent variable of interstate armed conflict. 5 The Risk
Barometer for War model is based on the Steps-to-War thesis by extrapolating five
independent variables from the latter—territorial disputes between nation pairs,
arms races, alliances, rivalry, and hardliner political leaders—and assigning an
additive numerical value to each variable. 6 The model subsequently adds the
values corresponding with each nation pair under examination. Therefore, as the
thesis maintains, the nation pairs featuring higher corresponding scores on the Risk
Barometer are more likely to engage in war. This model accurately predicted a
high probability of a Russo-Ukrainian armed conflict occurring in Crimea within
five years of its first publication. 7 Its authors released the findings in 2012—two
years before the Russian Federation initiated an armed annexation of the Black Sea
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