% Change in real Gross National Income ( 4-quarter average )
( Note : Current prices have been adjusted by the CPI ; Source : Stats SA )
7
%
5
3
1
-1
Q4 ’ 18 Q1 ’ 19 2 3 4 Q1 ’ 20 2 3 4 Q1 ’ 21 2 3
-3
-5
The Absa PMI , which only covers manufacturing , broke its all-time record twice during 2021 and recorded its highest ever level in November 2021 , namely 64.1 . Between August 2020 and December 2021 , the seasonally adjusted figure was in expansionary territory ( above 50 ) for 16 of these 17 months , with the only exception in July , when there were unrests in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng .
The New Year has also brought some ratings agency cheer to the South African economy , with Fitch Ratings having become more bullish over the country ’ s public debt and the news that South Africa ’ s bonds won the gold medal in 2021 , outperforming every country of noteworthy credit credentials . According to Bloomberg ’ s ranking of 46 global bond markets , South Africa came out tops in 2021 tops with a net yield of just below 9 %.
More proof that the economy is progressing well on a recovery path is provided by the latest trend for gross national income , which increased by a healthy 4.7 % in real terms during the third quarter ( year-on-year ). The four-quarter average for this key indicator reached a multi-year high in the third quarter of 2021 .
With South Africa ’ s national income growing at a healthy rate and several indicators of business confidence in positive territory , the New Year seems poised for further growth and a consolidation of economic recovery .
Dr . Roelof Botha is the economic advisor to the Optimum Group and former winner of Netwerk24 ’ s Economist of the Year competition .
Dr Roelof Botha
13