obviously wrong that it left many commentators speechless. Now they are speechless for a different
reason. By simply raising doubts about the validity of information, they risk being labeled heretics.
Now the devotees got another tool to silence them.
2.16
Conspiracy theory
A conspiracy theory is an explanation of an event or situation that invokes a conspiracy by sinister
and powerful actors.
Specific claim
Who created the virus? Who incited panic? Who stands behind?
Conspiracy requires a grand plan, coordination, secrecy and a competent entity behind. It
is complicated and difficult, so we could end speculations of this kind by using Occam’s razor.
Elaborate constructions with lots of assumptions are not necessary to explain the situation when
a simple explanation is possible.
Trying to demonstrate why one or another theory is unfounded is usually a waste of time be-
cause the tendency to follow conspiracy theories is often linked to a serious psychological condition
of the person pursuing them. To the individual captivated by the conspiracy idea, no logical ar-
gument is able to dissuade from speculating.
Instead, let’s try to understand why people are looking for malevolent agents and so often ask
”who is behind?”.
Pursuing scientific knowledge and understanding complex systems is relatively new in the his-
tory of human evolution. In prehistoric times, human life revolved around dangerous animals,
hostile tribes and ferocious hunters. Identifying a threatening or friendly agent was critical to
human survival. Understanding the phenomena, mechanisms, and laws, although useful, was sec-
ondary to differentiating between friend and enemy. The savage life was too short and fragile
to make it possible to use systematic knowledge. Natural selection favored answering the ”who”
question over ”how”.
Also the validity of these two questions depends on the scale. In the scale of a tribe, village or
even a small town, if a cow disappears from the shed, it is reasonable to ask ”who stole the cow?”.
When we analyze complex global systems, asking ”who” is no longer justified because thousands
or millions of interacting actors are involved. In such context, it is more important to ask ”how”,
to understand processes, mechanisms and dependencies.
Asking ”who” and looking for intentional agency is a part of the primitive religious instinct and
is deeply woven into human mental fabric. Whenever we see a person that holds beliefs that call
upon a supernatural being or pursues a conspiracy theory that invokes a sinister actor or merely
attributes intentional agency to a machine or a robot, it’s the remnants of the troglodyte brain in
action.
It is also worth to make the general observation on how futile conspiracy considerations are.
Conspiracy requires secrecy and it leads us to the conspiracy paradox:
• if the conspiracy is successful, we will never find out, because secrecy was kept efficiently
• if the conspiracy is not successful (secrecy was broken), it is no longer conspiracy
In the context of intricate social systems, reasoning in terms of a single cause or single agent
requires a lot of unlikely assumptions and is usually an error. Complex phenomena can only be
reasonably explained by natural laws, mutual connections, incentives, interactions and dependen-
cies.
What can be the natural explanation then?
At this moment it should be clear that the crisis was caused not by the disease itself, but by
the emotional, excessive reaction to information about it.
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