When certain ideas begin to take hold, such as particular attitudes toward health issues, band-
wagon beliefs can have serious and damaging consequences.
Specific claim
”I think the 3.4 percent number [mortality rate] is really a false number. I’d say the number is way
under 1 percent [15]”
Donald Trump, March 7th 2020.
”Even with the social distancing the US is doing now, a quarter of million Americans will likely
die as a result of the ongoing outbreak [29]”
Donald Trump, March 31st 2020
This example may be controversial because the quote comes from one of the most dividing
political figures of our times. Let’s suspend personal sentiments and have a look at how the
president’s attitude has changed between the beginning and the end of March 2020.
Mr Trump is the last person who can be accused of conformity, yet after initial strike of common
sense intuition, he succumbed to public pressure and changed his view from healthy skepticism to
unsound fatalism.
However, this example has an individual touch. It would be naive to think that he actually
abandoned his original belief. It’s rather the instinct for political survival prevailed and Mr Trump
realized that the truth is less important than political gains and losses. Ultimately no one is likely
to lose support for being too tough on coronavirus.
Bandwagon effect is often explained as having its roots in peoples’ inherent social instincts,
the need for peer approval or animal-like herd behavior. In this context, Mr Trump example
is particularly interesting because it shows that the elaborate anthropological explanations are
not necessary here. Once the movement reaches critical mass, even the most nonconformist ratio-
nal actor may hop on the bandwagon of nonsense as a result of a pragmatic and calculated decision.
2.15
Groupthink
Groupthink is a tendency among members of the group to agree at all costs. The desire for harmony
or conformity in the group results in an irrational or a dysfunctional decision-making outcome.
Similar to the bandwagon effect, it makes people adopt beliefs of others. Groupthink is different
in two aspects.
First, the source of groupthink lies in the desire for cohesiveness. It aims to minimize conflict
and reach a consensus without critical evaluation.
Second, groupthink generates additional pressure on the members of the group. It requires
individuals to avoid raising controversial issues or alternative solutions. It may also produce
dehumanizing actions against the ”outgroup”.
Groupthink creates an atmosphere of mob derangement, where any skeptical view or doubt
is seen as an attack on the dogma, dissent is sidetracked, questioning is diverted into conspiracy
theories and rational discourse is not possible anymore.
Specific claim
Almost all countries are on coronavirus lockdown, with severe restrictions on movement and harsh
penalties. Except Sweden. They are going to suffer for not imposing lockdown. World Health
Organization (WHO) demands the Sweden government must be stricter and increase measures to
control spread and ensure physical distancing.
This is an example of groupthink on the level of governments and organizations.
Almost all countries adopted draconian restrictions. Most of them without evaluating pros and
cons. Other factors played a role instead:
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