minimized.
Specific claim
The nursing home resident had many underlying diseases, but died of coronavirus.
In many cases we actually don’t know it. The reports from Italy and other countries state that
the clear criteria for the definition of COVID-19–related deaths are not available [45].
The uncertainty arises not only from the lack of criteria or data. The difficulty of determining
the cause of death is more fundamental. When multiple chronic diseases are involved, the cause
of death is often a compound of many factors. The physician filling the death certificate must
choose one. It is a frequent but necessary oversimplification. If there are multiple possible causes,
selecting a single one is a subjective choice that depends on the current focus.
We should be particularly aware of this inaccuracy and uncertainty in the context of coronavirus
crisis, because most of the fatal cases had multiple other conditions.
According to the report from Italy’s National Institute of Health released on March 17, 2020,
99% of COVID-19 patients who have died in the country had at least one preexisting condition
and nearly 50% had three preexisting conditions. Specifically 76% had hypertension, 35% had
diabetes, 33% had heart disease, 25% had atrial fibrillation, 20% had active cancer in the past five
years, 18% had chronic kidney disease, 13% had chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, 10% had
previously had a stroke, 7% had dementia. [45, 1]
Additionally, prior studies from many countries indicate at least 25% misreported causes of
death on death certificates [31, 18]. In this context it’s important to realize what happens today
and how it affects diagnosing the cause of death.
Let’s imagine a typical case, the 85-year old patient with a long history of heart, kidney and
pulmonary diseases who had tested positively for coronavirus and stopped breathing. The reports
confirm that nowadays it would be classified as COVID-19 related death. Before 2020, no coron-
avirus tests have been made in such situations, and the physician filling the death certificate was
choosing one of the chronic diseases as the cause. They could keep the thought like ”some common
cold virus only worsened the condition” to themselves.
All the above shows how the single cause fallacy combined with focalism distorts the statistics,
although we don’t know to what extent.
2.12
Law of truly large numbers
The law states that with a large enough sample, any outrageous (unlikely) thing is likely to happen.
Because we never find it notable when likely events occur, we highlight unlikely events and notice
them more.
Specific claim
We cannot wait for herd immunity. Coronavirus is a danger not only to the elderly population.
On March 31st, 2020, the BBC reported that a 13-year old boy who tested positive for coronavirus
has died [5].
Apart from being an example of media sensationalism and argumentum ad misericordiam this
is an example of the law of truly large numbers.
What the media reported is very sad. Moreover, it is sad that over 100 other 13-year old boys
died the same day [14]. It is likely that a few of them died of influenza-like illnesses. What makes
this boy different is that he was unlucky to be tested positive for coronavirus, so his death made
the breaking news on the BBC.
16