strengthening the immune system by balanced nutrition, exercise and getting fresh air and sun-
shine. Sadly, the consistent and reliable implementing these policies is not as spectacular as making
prominent decisions about the lockdown, which achieved the opposite effect. The impulsive and
reckless decisions by the leaders who were expected to give the impression that ”there is someone
in charge who is taking care of it” left people stranded at homes, with essential needs unfulfilled,
with no access to basic services, all these things detrimental to people’s immune systems.
In the Middle Ages it was believed that the ringing of church bells would disperse evil spirits,
drive away infections and avert the lightnings. There are various theories on the origin of this
belief, but it also goes in line with people’s expectation for conspicuous action from authorities.
Centuries ago these unnecessary actions like ringing the bells during the plague could only
give people a headache. Nowadays the governments are more powerful. The demand for salient
response by authorities can bring about much worse damage.
2.10
Focalism
Focalism is a cognitive error that makes people focus too narrowly on a single event and neglect
the extent to which other, nonfocal events affect their lives. It happens when feelings are driven
by a single concern in current focus and not the complexity of events we experience. As a result
a person neglects other important considerations, cannot make proper judgments and predictions,
objectivity and balance are lost.
Focalism is easy to develop even by very rational and intelligent people. Extreme focalism may
lead to persecution mania and conspiracy theories.
The special version of focalism is anchoring which occurs when a person depends on an initial
piece of information (anchor) to make subsequent judgments. Once the anchor is set, all future
negotiations, arguments, estimates, are discussed in relation to the anchor.
Specific claim
I start my day with checking new cases statistics. I’m 23, but I know that I’m not safe at work.
Coronavirus kills young and healthy people too. I have to quit my job.
Monitoring statistics might be just an unhealthy habit on a par with compulsive email checking
or gambling on the performance of the favorite sports team, unless it affects the ability to evaluate
the risk.
In this case a person focuses on one danger, to the exclusion of all else. Rough calculations
indicate that for the age group less than 40 years old, a fatal case of coronavirus is less likely than
being diagnosed with terminal cancer within a year. The person gives too much weight to one par-
ticular piece of information, and at the same time ignores long term consequences of quitting a job.
Specific claim
No matter how severe the outbreak is, it’s better to prevent. The lockdown may be inconvenient
and painful, but any countermeasure is justified to save peoples’ lives.
A rational person understands that prevention is needed and must be balanced.
First, we need to ask ourselves why we want to prevent this particular danger and not the
thousands of others that may be more likely to happen. Usually the danger in focus is not the one
we should be most afraid of. The evidence shows that the coronavirus threat is real, but it’s tiny
comparing to other dangers we face every day. It’s especially difficult to keep the balanced view
when the mass hysteria about one threat reached the level, that permeates all spheres of life. The
continuous exposure to media coverage and emotional contagion from the peers is the reason we
consider taking preventive action against one particular disease to the exclusion of everything else.
14