The Maritime Economist Magazine Spring 2015 | Page 35

THEMARITIME Economist voice of young generation During the past half year, the Ukrainian economy destabilised with the local currency devaluating by more than 35 %. The heavy industry activities in the east of Ukraine (Donbas and Poltava Region) are facing hard times. Moreover, the railway paths in the Donbass region and other infrastructural facilities (e.g. in Donetsk) are significantly disrupted by the war making rebels. The Russian-Ukraine trade relations are also affected by the recent turmoil. In a reaction to the trade agreement between EU and Ukraine, Russia has threatened to withdraw the duty-free treatment that Ukraine currently benefits from as a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) free trade agreement. If Russia would start to impose customs duties, Ukraine’s exports could be heavily affected (particularly base metals, grains, machinery, equipment and food). Despite the crisis, Russia remains a key trade partner of Ukraine: 24% of its exports are related to Russia. A way out for Ukraine would be to re-export EU products to Russia thereby avoiding possible Russian duties. Cargo impacts on Crimean ports The Ukrainian port system is feeling the full impact of the crisis. This section describes the expected intra-Ukrainian cargo flows shifts, more precisely which cargoes are more likely to be rerouted to continental Ukrainian ports and which will stay bounded to Crimea. Ukrainian ports mainly focus on the handling of dry bulk (agri-bulk, mining and metallurgic cargoes and chemicals), general cargo (containers and heavy industry goods) and liquid bulk. Dry cargo facilities (including dry bulk and general cargoes, but excluding grain and containers) in Ukrainian ports represent 133 mln tons or 51% of the total capacity of the port system. The grain capacity represent another 15% of total ports’ capacities or about 38 mln tons per year. The utilization rate of the cargo handling facilities for dry bulk cargo in Ukrainian ports reached 92% in 2011. For grain facilities, it amounted to 47%. Figure 2. Geographical location of Ukrainian ports and their handling capacities in 2011 ME Mag Source: adapted from Marine Agency and Crewing company “Sif-Service” and Centre of transport strategy cfts.org.ua (Kiev, Ukraine) 35