The Global Phoenix - Issue 3 August 2017 | Page 26

Challenges in STEP 3 -
Analysis and Interpretation
of Data - Establishing
Trends and Forecasts
1. The Supply and Demand
Equation
The supply/demand equation affects
budget requirements and impacts on
trends. Numerous factors influence the
local supply/demand balance:
Volume of Relocations or Departures
- An example is The Solomon Islands
where in 2014 expat rental property
prices plummeted by around 30% as
RAMSI peacekeeping forces withdrew,
leaving numerous high-standard
properties empty.
Natural Disasters and Medical
Emergencies - These can affect
supply/demand causing prices soar
or plummet, making trends difficult or
impossible to predict. An example is
the earthquake in Haiti in 2010 which,
although not affecting expat housing
as much as local, totally destroyed
the infrastructure, necessitating expat
withdrawal. Then the Ebola crisis of
2014-2016 swept through western
Africa forcing expats to evacuate back to
their home countries, and leaving local
communities devastated as they burned
their dead. Worse hit was Sierra Leone
and throughout western Africa suppliers
in neighbouring countries remained on
tenterhooks, not knowing if they would
follow the same fate, unable to provide
any forecast for the year ahead.
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Political Upheaval, Security Threats and
War - Real or perceived threats to security
impact on the supply/demand balance in
every field as expats are evacuated and
mobility plans put on hold. The Arab Spring
of 2011 and more recently the Ukrainian
revolution of 2014 are examples.
Libya still poses a specific high-level
security threat whereas other areas that
used to be danger zones are now opening
up to expatriate influx once again, such as
Nigeria’s Rivers State (Port Harcourt, Bonny
Island). This destination was the site of
numerous kidnappings between 2000 and
2010, and several expatriates were killed. In
2003 a leading petrochemical multinational
took the corporate decision to relocate their
Port Harcourt staff to Lagos, the business
capital of the country, taking over a large
tower block that had previously housed
numerous expats from various companies.
Demand for expat-suitable housing in Rivers
State dropped drastically as a result of this
corporate decision and it soared in Lagos
where supply at the time was limited.
Economy Changes - Oil Prices - The drastic
fall in oil prices had a knock-on effect in
many areas of the world; the expatriate
housing market was hit in numerous
destinations as expats were withdrawn due
to downscaling as economies struggled.
This is seen in the fact that landlords in
several countries who previously advertised
in USD have reverted to local currency.