18 .
MAY 2017
By Giza Mdoe
Ugali , the Unsung Hero
I cannot imagine life without ugali . My mother makes the best ugali ,
Oh , with what grace she stirs , turning porridge into fuel for the nation .
Her ugali making technique is stuff for Hollywood secret family recipes , legendary Like economics , it is both an art and a science ,
Oh , with what grace she stirs , turning porridge into fuel for the nation .
A scientist , she always gets the water and flour quantity just right , So the ugali always has the right texture and elasticity
Oh , with what grace she stirs , turning porridge into fuel for the nation .
An artist how she keeps conversation , running the entire house and our lives all the while she stirs the ugali ,
Oh , with what grace she stirs , turning porridge into fuel for the nation .
Con for Corn , Magufuli was Right
‘ There is a man dying of thirst , yet he lives on an island surrounded by fresh water ’ Unknown Author
Ugali , the unsung hero
Ugali is the staple food for more than 50 million Tanzanians and over 400 million others across East Africa ; that is almost 6 % of the world population . 1 I cannot imagine life without ugali . Ugali is made from maize and is the country ’ s most common staple food . I stand corrected but on average , a common Tanzanian eats ugali almost on a daily basis . So , ugali lover that I am , when it comes to the matter of soaring maize prices , I am absolutely dumbfounded and utterly annoyed . I remember my dismay when early this year I had to pay the same price for maize flour as I did for rice ! To understand the extent of my shock , you must realize that in Tanzania and the greater East Africa , rice is royalty ; it is food for the kings . In its various varieties and forms , rice is what you serve at weddings and on birthdays , it is your weekend special and everyone ’ s favourite delight , it is the meal of honour and prestige fit for any and all occasions . With the glamour comes a high price ; rice costs a pretty sum . Since it is a luxury both at home and in restaurants , rice has traditionally been the most expensive staple and as such , its price has always been higher than that of maize , your daily affordable staple present on every lunch and dinner table , every single day . The humble ugali , the unsung hero , will never grace any event ; it will not be on any wedding or birthday spreads and dare you cook it over the weekend , you will have your children frowning at you . Nonetheless , ugali is our daily meal , it is fuel for the nation ’ s workforce . Dare I suggest , given its national daily intake , the price of ugali is sufficient to determine the basic wellbeing of aTanzanian , that is , the ability of a Tanzanian to make or buy ugali is evidence enough of his or her welfare .
So the matter of soaring maize prices is not a personal query but rather , a national catastrophe .
Inflated inflation The price of maize in Tanzania has more than doubled over the last couple of months . While on average you could buy a kilo of maize flour for TShs . 1000 in January of this year , by mid- March , the price had soared to TShs . 2100 and is still rising . “ Consumer prices in Tanzania increased 5.5 percent year-on-year in February 2017 , following 5.2 percent rise in the previous month . It was the highest inflation rate since June of 2016 mainly boosted by rising prices for food ,” reports the National Bureau of Statistics ( NBS ).
Inflation is a sustained increase in the general price of goods and services over a given period of time . As the price of goods and services increase , the value of the currency decreases . When the purchasing power of money falls , the cost of living goes up . With inflation , the same amount of money buys fewer items in the market i . e . while Tshs . 1000 could buy you a whole kilogram of maize flour in January of this year , the same Tshs . 1000 can only buy half a kilogram in March , only two months later . ‘ When the price level rises , each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services . Consequently , inflation reflects a reduction in the purchasing power per unit of money – a loss of real value of the money .’ 2 This loss of ‘ real value ’ is manifested in the fall of the money ’ s power to buy goods and services that gravely affects living standards . The average size of a Tanzanian family has five mouths to feed . On average , the family can comfortably make do with a kilogram of maize flour per sitting . However , since the price has doubled , now the family has to find an extra Tshs . 1000 to get full or settle for only half a kilogram and go hungry ( or semi-full if you please ).
So where does this extra TShs . 1000 come from ? As prices of goods and services continue to rise ( inflate ) averaging 1 percent each month3 , the hard question is whether there is relative increase in individual income to balance out this consistent increase in cost of living :‘ as food prices rise , is individual income rising concomitantly ?’
According to the NBS 2015 figures , the average daily income of each Tanzanian lingers just below Tshs . 2000 4 . So the exponential rise in price of maize to Tshs . 2300 means that , on average , a Tanzanian ’ s daily income is less than the price of a kilogram of maize flour ! This rising cost of living affects lower income earners the most and unfortunately , they represent the larger portion of the country ’ s population . In fact , the double-edged inflation sword has been slashing at the poor on two fronts . First is the fact that it makes it harder for the poor to afford a decent living because they have lower income and less savings as well as fewer alternative income sources and so they find it ever difficult to keep up with the rising cost of living . Secondly , the expenditure burden weighs more on the side of basic needs like food and housing , further deteriorating the social welfare of the poor . ‘ Compared to February 2016 , prices went up faster for food and non-alcoholic beverages ( 8.7 percent from 7.6 percent in January ). Additional upward pressure came from : housing and utilities ( 8.7 percent from 9.5 percent ) and clothing and footwear ( 3.2 percent from 3.4 percent ).’ 5 In fact , the cost of food increased faster shooting up to 2.3 percent from 1.6 percentand having soared up by12.2 percent . Maize ( in both grain and flour form ) suffered the largest price increase followed by other staples - cooking bananas ( 9.5 percent ), beans ( 6.7percent ) and rice ( 4 percent ). 6
What is behind the exponential rise in maize price ?
The second law of supply dictates , supply is more responsive to price in the long run . Given their ability to produce , suppliers can be very flexible to increase in prices ( like in the case of hoarded stocks released from warehouses ). This is called price elasticity of supply or response of supply to change in price . 7 Businessmen know this law all too well and have been known to hoard supplies to push up market prices in a bid to pocket even more profits . It is then no surprise that a data evaluation portal called Pesacheck , quoted the national newspaper Daily News , as having reported that , ‘ President John Magufuli says the rise ( of maize price ) is due to businessmen who , in an effort to jack up prices , are hoarding maize which has led to shortages and thereby an increase in prices . “ They used the media and some politicians to spread stories that there is famine in Tanzania . But surprisingly , by then they had already imported low quality maize from Brazil and wanted the government to waive taxes so that they could gain more profit while we lose revenue ,” he said , according to the Daily News . 8
Blame it on Global Warming
‘ In his failure to acknowledge and take action , unfavourable weather is no longer a natural disaster but man ’ s own doing . ’ Unknown Author
The same source points at another possible and even plausible cause of the maize shortage and the resulting rise in prices . “... there are reports suggesting that a drought that has hit several East African nations was causing famine in the region , leading to less maize being produced and thereby contributing to soaring prices . These reports link the crisis to “ the dual phenomena of El Niño , which began in 2015 , and ensuing La Niña ” which have resulted in “ shortened ” and “ erratic rainfalls ” across East Africa .” It goes on to quote three authoritative voices ; the Minister of Agriculture , Livestock and Fisheries , Dr . Charles Tizeba , as having confirmed to Parliament in February this year that rain was “ below average and came late between September and November ” last year supporting the notion that weather changes have impacted the crop . Secondly , it cites the World Food Program ( WFP ) January report on the drought stating that minimal rains during the agricultural season resulted in parts of the country experiencing food shortages associated with a depletion of maize stocks and that ( as a result ) maize prices have increased across all markets with Dar es Salaam having seen an increase of over 40 percent compared to the same period last year . Thirdly , it cites the U . N . Food and Agriculture Organization ( FAO ) as having reported “ the drought in East Africa has sent prices of staples such as maize and sorghum soaring , warning that a sharp increase in food prices could lead to renewed hunger in the region ”. It concludes , ‘ the evidence suggests that the increase of the price of maize is largely due to climate change as reported by various sources and not due to businessmen artificially causing prices to soar as implied by President Magufuli ’ s statement .’
Nature or manmade
The National Bureau of Statistics ( NBS ) confirms the draught in its 2015 Tanzania in Figures report showing a Tanzania Meteorological Agency ( TMA ) table that indicates a sharp fall in rainfall as of June 2015 through to October 2015 . Further , the USAID famine watchdog , the Famine Early Warning Systems Network ( FEWS NET ) also confirms the bad weather . In its February 2017 Special Report ‘ Illustrating the extent and severity of the 2016 Horn of Africa drought ’ it says , “... severe drought , related to La Niña and warm West Pacific sea surface temperatures , significantly impacted rainfall performance during the 2016 October to December season across the Horn of Africa ... and greatly limited crop production .”
Now , though the natural phenomena excuse is , shall we again say , plausible , it is however unlikely that it is thecause of the maize shortage that has caused prices to rise so high . Why , Tanzania was enjoying a bumper harvest of maize during the very same period .
The Daily News , reported mid-last year that the Minister for Agriculture , Livestock and Fisheries , Mr . Mwigulu Nchemba , “ declared in Parliament that Tanzania is self-sufficient in food by 120 per cent , with a surplus of