股票
股 票长 期 平均 收 益 率为：中盘 股 1 0 . 4%，大 盘 股
10.9%, 小盘股12.3%。但是过去35年中，除近5年中
萧条恢复反弹外，这些收益率一直在下降。鉴于2017
年股票市盈率乘数较高，很少有投资者预期将来的收
益率会同过去五年一样。
与股票收益率表类似，图表还显示了每类股票的收益
率波动性和标准偏差。平均收益率减去其标准偏差意
味着投资者应该预期将来某个时点的回报率为负值：
中盘股-8.9%，大盘股-5.8%，小盘股-12.1%。
房地产
房地产的表现介于其他两类资产之间，收益率高于债
券，为9.2%，但不同于股票的收益率。然而，过去五年
中，随着大萧条后经济复苏，房地产表现几乎与所有
三类股票相同。显而易见，房地产收益率比三类股票
更加稳定，因为所有时间段中的收益范围非常相似。
这一点从较低的标准偏差角度看更为明显，所有时间
段的平均标准偏差为7.6%，过去五年中的标准偏差非
常低，为2.0%。用房地产平均收益率9.2%，减去其平
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STOCKS
Stocks have had long-term average returns between
10.4 percent for mid cap, to 10.9 percent for large cap
and 12.3 percent for small cap. But these returns have
been declining over the past 35 years, except for the last
five years with their recession-recovery bounce up. Few
investors expect future returns like the past five years with
the high stock price-to-earnings multiples of 2017. Similar
to the stock return charts, the return volatility and the
standard deviations of each stock type is also displayed.
Taking the average returns and subtracting their standard
deviations means that investors should expect negative
returns of -8.9 percent for mid-cap, -5.8 percent for large
cap, and -12.1 percent for small cap stocks at some time
in the future.
REAL ESTATE
Real estate has performed in-between the other two
asset classes, with a return better than bonds of 9.2
percent, but not quite stock-like return. However, it has
performed almost as well as all three stock sectors in the
past five years, with the recovery from the great recession.
It is evident that real estate returns have been more consistent
than the three stock sectors, as the return bars are very
similar for all time frames. It is even more evident from the
low standard deviations that average 7.6 percent over
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