因退出的不可预测性产生的复归价值问题 , 认为与入 账回报率相比 , 退出回报率将会或应该更低 / 受到压 制 。 利益相关者 , 如经纪人 、 银行和酒店运营商应该 正面解决此等错误观念和问题 。 投资者通常会认为酒 店提供稳定的现金流和收益 , 所以是低风险投资 。 如 果投资者未充分认识到因宏观经济周期 、 人口特征变 化 、 供求动态变化 、 经营者改变和改名造成的几乎不 可避免的波动性 , 投资者可能会低估风险 。
投资者高估风险的情况同样也很常见 。 这一点体现在 买方经常要求采取风险减轻或绩效促进措施 , 如优先 收益率 、 履约担保 、 减税和回购安排等等 。 此外 , 投资 者还会与酒店运营商协商在酒店管理合同中增加额 外的制衡条款 , 这种情况也相当常见 。 例如 , 一些买 方甚至会提倡预算超支惩罚条款 , 认为严格控制运营 活动意味着更有效地减轻风险 。 有时 , 由于买方按照 正常行业标准要求过多的自我保护机制 , 可能会造成 交易流程延迟 , 甚至陷入僵局 。 很多投资者仅仅将回 报率视为或用作一种收益指标 , 而非一种风险衡量指 标 。 因此 , 他们通常将回报率作为门槛收益率 。 例如 , 那些在初步评估中要求 6 % 的初始收益率的投资者可 能会接受回报率为 8 % 的交易 。 同时 , 投资者很容易因 回报率低而失去兴趣 , 例如 , 全球门户城市中的投资 者认为这些热门市场应该提供更高的收益率 , 但是却 忽视了这些市场风险最低 、 价格哄抬和增长潜力可能 较低的事实 。
虽然期望得到更高的回报率 , 买方很少会将此等回报 率与更高风险联系起来 。 所以 , 最好从任何交易开始 时明确说明回报率和风险情况 , 尤其是在目前回报率 接近历史低水平的情况下 , 更应明确说明 , 这一点很 重要 。 相当多的中国投资者仍然对回报率存在误解 , 回报率与任一特定酒店的投资回报率或净营业收入 无关 , 是由市场具体因素决定的 , 包括产品类型 、 地 段 、 信贷可得性 、 通胀和收益曲线 。
由于酒店面临着经营状况风险和房地产市场风险 , 而 且没有标准化和直截了当的风险衡量指标 , 使得中国 投资者很难有效评估风险 。 外酒店投资交易需要大量 繁琐的工作 , 作为 “ 海外投资 ” 宏观趋势的一个重要组 成部分 , 人们普遍认为这一热潮会继续下去 。 我们对 投资者越了解 , 交易成功的可能性便越高 。 such as brokers , banks and hotel operators should address such misconceptions and concerns head on . It is common for the investors to believe that hotels offer stable cash flows and income , and therefore are low-risk investments . Not fully aware of the almost unavoidable volatility caused by macroeconomic cycles , demographic shift , supply demand dynamics , operator change , and reflagging , the investors are likely to underestimate risks .
It is equally common for them to overestimate risks . This is evidenced by frequent requests from buyers for risk mitigators or performance enhancers such as preferred returns , performance guarantee , tax abatements and buyback arrangement to name a few . It is also quite usual for an investor to negotiate with hotel operators about adding extra checks and balances in the hotel management contract . For example , some buyers would even push for penalty clauses for budget overrun , believing stringent control over operations means better risk mitigation . Sometimes such buyers can cause delay or even an impasse in the deal process by requesting too many selfprotection mechanisms by normal industry standards .
Many investors treat or use cap rate only as a return metric but not as a risk measure . As such they often use cap rate as a return hurdle . For example , those who require a 6 percent initial yield in preliminary assessment would probably accept a deal offered at 8 percent cap rate . At the same time , the investors are easily underwhelmed by low cap rates , for example those in global gateway cities , reckoning that such hot markets should offer higher returns yet missing the fact that these markets have lowest risks . While expecting higher cap rates , buyers rarely associate such rates with higher risks . Therefore , it is vital to have good storylines on cap rates and risks from the outset of any deal , especially currently when hotel cap rates are at historical low . Cap rate , which is Independent of the ROI or net operating income of any specific hotel , and is market dictated by product type , location , inflation , and yield curves , remains a much misunderstood concept to a fair number of Chinese investors .
The fact that hotels are exposed to both business risk and real estate market risk , and that there are no standardized and straightforward risk measures , makes it hard for Chinese investors to evaluate risks effectively . Even though outbound hotel deals are strenuous endeavors , as a significant component of the larger macro trend of investing overseas , this wave is widely believed to continue . The better we know the investors , the higher the probability of deal success will be .
秦涵栩
秦涵栩先生是 IHG 全球公司金融企业并购部高级 总 监 , 在 投 资 、 商 业 开发 和 公 司 战 略 方 面 有 着 1 5 年 的从业经验 。 他早年曾从事买方投资组合分析方 面的工作 , 在美国和中国的投资银行均担任过多 项职位 。 近年来 , 他专注于公司内部工作 , 处理种 类繁多的跨境交易事宜 。 他在与中国境外投资者合作方面有着广 泛的经验 。
Henry Qin
Henry Qin is a senior director , global corporate finance mergers & acquisitions at IHG . He has over 15 years of experience in investments , business development and corporate strategy . Starting as a portfolio analyst on the buy side , he assumed various roles with investment banks in the U . S . and China . In recent years , he has been working in house and is involved in a variety of cross-border transactions . He deals extensively with Chinese outbound investors .
53 THE CHINA INVESTOR