2016 年 , 德国是欧洲最大 的房地产交易市场 , 投资 额达到 654 亿美元 。
反映这一变化的一项重要事件是摩根士丹利于 2016 年 10 月以 12 亿美元的价格代表中国投资有限责任公司 ( CIC ) 买下 16,000 套住宅公寓 。 此项德国境内的超大额 投资组合交易也有助于带动交易量上升 。
交易数量统计数据显示 , 中国大陆和香港对荷兰和中 东欧的投资也在加速增长 , 过去三年中 , 仅捷克共和国 一个国家吸引的投资额就将近 5 亿美元 。 这一趋势反映 了脱欧投票产生的不确定性影响 , 中国投资者对欧洲 各个市场熟悉度逐渐增加 。 developers and global institutions . In London alone , they spent $ 5.9 billion in the last 12 months on deals such as the Cheesegrater , known as the Leadernhall Building , or Walkie Talkie at 20 Fenchurch Street . Next to London , Germany is Europe ’ s brightest performer , with real estate demand growing to overtake the U . K . In 2016 , Germany was Europe ’ s largest real estate transactions market when investment reached $ 65.4 billion . Crossborder activity grew to a 47 percent share and investor confidence may increase because Germany should benefit from a European safe haven perception shift from the U . K ., underlined when Morgan Stanley bought 16,000 residential units on behalf of China Investment Corporation ( CIC ) at $ 1.2 billion in October of 2016 .
This exceptionally large portfolio transaction in Germany also helped drive volumes higher . A deal count shows Chinese and Hong Kong investments in the Netherlands and the Central Eastern Europe have also accelerated , with the Czech Republic alone attracting close to half a billion US dollars in the last three years . This trend underlines the uncertainty impact of the Brexit vote and a growing Chinese familiarity with markets across Europe .
中国境外投资的未来趋势
中国大陆和香港投资者在进入新市场时通常会面临开 发风险 , 但是欧洲所有类型的房产中存在着大量收益 型资产 , 这减轻了购置土地和新建房屋的需求 , 所以写 字楼和公寓表现优异 。
很难相信中国大陆和香港对全球房地产的投资会中 止 , 尽管目前 存 在着 一 些 不 利 因 素 。 投 资 将 会 继 续 流 向 境外市场 , 实现不断增长的国内财富的多样化配置 , 欧 洲房地产市场将会具有很大的吸引力 。 但是 , 更加严格 的监管可能会损害投资信心 , 逐年延长项目时间表 , 特 别是在如果债务市场也发生不利变化的情况下 。
欧洲房地产市场较成熟 , 定价机制完善 , 内部交易收益 率变动反映了欧洲主要市场价格水平如何上升至历史 最 高 水平 , 而 收 益 可能 仍 受 到 压 制 。 例 如 , 2 0 1 7 年 第 2 季 度 , 伦敦收益率为 4 %, 巴黎收益率为 4.5 %, 法兰克福 收益率为 5 % 。 只有英国最大的六个城市和阿姆斯特丹 出现了与此趋势相反的收益变化 。
现在 , 投资者面临的问题是如何在竞争如此激烈的环 境中平衡投资风险和回报 。
THE FUTURE OF CHINESE OUTBOUND CAPITAL
Chinese and Hong Kong investors have often accepted development risk when entering new markets but a sizable pool of income-producing assets in all property types has mitigated the need to buy land and build in Europe , so in the sectors offices and apartments have outperformed . It is hard to believe Chinese mainland and Hong Kong capital outflows into global real estate might halt , despite today ’ s headwinds . Investment still will flow abroad to diversify a deepening pool of domestic wealth and European real estate markets will be a draw . But perhaps more intense regulation could damage investment commitments and extend project timelines year-by-year , especially if debt markets also turn unfavorable .
Investors face a mature and fully priced European real estate market and inward transaction yields movement underline how pricing in Europe ’ s main markets has risen to become historically expensive and yields could still compress . For instance , you pay 4 percent yield in London , 4.5 percent in Paris and 5 percent in Frankfurt in Q2 2017 . The only move against the trend has been in the largest six U . K . cities and Amsterdam . Now , investors face the problem of how to balance risk and reward in such a competitive environment .
文章内容根据截至 7 月 18 日已公开的信息撰写 。 Article is based on information available as of July 18 .
佩特拉 · 布拉斯高娃
布拉斯高娃女士于 2015 年加入 Real Capital Analytics ( RCA ) 公司 , 现任 RCA 亚太地区分析 服务部战略发展主管 。 她在房地产行业具有 14 年 的从业经验 。 此前她曾作为研究员就职于新加坡 CBRE , 负责仲量联行 、 King Sturge 和高力国际 的欧洲市场 。 她于捷克共和国布拉格大学获得学士学位 , 并于英国 雷丁大学获得房地产投资和金融硕士学位 。
Petra Blazkova
Petra Blazkova joined Real Capital Analytics in 2015 where she oversees the strategic development of RCA ’ s analytic services in Asia Pacific . She has 14 years of real estate experience . She previously worked at CBRE in Singapore and as a researcher covering European markets for JLL , King Sturge and Colliers International . She has a Bachelor ’ s degree from University of Prague , Czech Republic , and a Master ’ s Degree in Real Estate Investment and Finance from the University of Reading in U . K .
39 THE CHINA INVESTOR