发展 , 虽然与美国在二战后的繁荣类似 , 但规模更大 。 人口数量 、 中产阶级的快速增长 、 可支配储蓄的设立 和房地产所有权的变更使得中国前所未有的发展更加 集中和更具爆发力 。 满足上述发展产生的后续对房地 产的需求意味着在今后数年内 , 可能几十年内 , 新开发 项目在中国房地产总存量中所占的比例将会进一步增 加 。
中国市场中似乎存在着永远无法满足的承租人需求 , 近年来 , 事实证明这一认知是正确的 。 这催生了一种投 资心态 , 即认为承租人将会大量存在 , 具有租赁需求 , 或者更可能希望拥有新建房屋 , 从而产生了 “ 房屋建成 后就会吸引来承租人 ” 的心理 。 在与房地产投资相关的 所有风险中 , 需求 / 租赁风险是两个市场中存在差异最 大的风险之一 。
市场成熟度对购置的影响
截至日前 , 由于总体的商业谨慎情绪 , 中国资本尚未能 够有效参与现有房地产资产的购置 。 在中国制度资本 购买现有资产方面 , 已有一些值得注意的案例 ; 这些 资产通常是 “ 炫耀性 ” 资产 , 会令所有者产生自豪感 , 规 模较大 ( 按照美国标准 ), 且由于买方愿意支付大额保 费 , 卖方一直希望放慢销售流程 。
只有时间会告诉你此类资产是否是优质投资 。 然而 , 随 着中国资本提高其在美国房地产市场中的参与度 , 中 国资本应提高灵活性 , 在大部分交易的习惯性时间内 运作 , 这一点将会变得越来越重要 。 支付更高的保费 , 参与一个高效的市场 , 不会产生预期投资结果 。 找到并 聘用一个强大的 、 值得信赖的 、 具有双重文化背景的投 资团队是重要的第一步 。
市场成熟度对开发的影响
美国和中国房地产市场的成熟度产生的另一个差异是 美国市场中大规模开发项目要远远少于中国市场 。 更 加成熟的市场往往会处于更好的相对供求平衡状态 ; 对大规模开发项目的需求要少于成长型市场 , 如中国 。 美国境内项目的规模是根据认知需求确定的 , 在美国 , 需求与中国非常不同 。 这一点让大多数大型中国投资 者感到惊讶 , 很多中国投资者在首次进入美国市场时 本身就是开发商 。 这些初期项目中大部分项目的规模让 美国房地产专业人士感到惊叹 ( 和不可思议 ) 。
这些项目中大部分项目正在建设 , 其成功可能会取决于 以下因素 : 其避开美国债务资本市场的能力 , 比大部分 美国开发项目拥有更多股权的能力 , 最重要的是 , 按照 其国内法规在其本国市场中利用股权融资的能力 。 在 美国资本限制规定项下 , 很难建设一个大型项目 , 除非 开发商能够向资本市场证明需求是真实的 , 并有证据 支撑 。 在周期性行业中 , 大型项目本身具有更多风险 , 因为很难控制退出时的经济状况 。 美国的开发商也同 estate stock . The ability to purchase an asset that is already built , already occupied or partially occupied significantly mitigates this occupancy risk and is viewed more favorably in the U . S . Consequently , purchasing existing assets is much more typical and efficient in the U . S . From initial marketing to selection of a buyer is usually accomplished in 30 days or less , and pricing produces lower returns than new developments because these assets are perceived to have a lower risk profile .
Conversely , China ’ s spectacular economic growth over the past 30 years , while similar to the U . S . boom post-World War II , is on an even larger scale . The size of the population , the rapid growth of a middle class , the creation of disposable savings and changes in real estate ownership have made China ’ s unprecedented growth more concentrated and explosive . The subsequent demand for real estate to meet that growth , means years , possibly decades , in which development will remain a much larger percentage of the total real estate stock in the country . There is a seemingly insatiable tenant demand in China ’ s markets and that perception has been proven accurate over the recent past . This has created an investment mindset that assumes tenants will be abundant and will want to lease , or more likely , own any new development , producing a “ build it and they will come ” mindset . Of all the risks associated with real estate investment the risk of demand / leasing is one of the two most often skewed between the two markets .
MATURITY ’ S IMPACT ON ACQUISITION
Chinese capital , due to general business caution , has not been able to effectively participate in the acquisition of existing real estate assets . There have been notable cases when institutional Chinese capital has purchased existing assets ; typically , they are “ trophy ” assets that come with a “ pride of ownership ”, large ( by U . S . standards ), and the seller has been willing to slow the sale process because of the large premium the buyer is willing to pay . Only time will tell if these are good investments . However , as Chinese capital increases its participation in the U . S . real estate markets , it will become increasingly important that it become more agile and work within the customary timing of most transactions . Paying a higher , premium price to participate in an efficient market will not produce the desired investment result over time . Finding and engaging a strong , trusted bi-cultural investment group is an important first step .
MATURITY ’ S IMPACT ON DEVELOPMENT
Another difference driven by the maturation of the U . S . and China real estate markets is that large scale development projects are far less common in U . S . markets than in China . More mature markets tend to be in more relative supply / demand balance ; the need for large scale development is less common than in growth markets such as China . Projects in the U . S . are sized based on perceived demand and in the U . S . demand is very different than in China . This surprised many large Chinese investors , many of whom are developers themselves , when they first entered the U . S . market . U . S . real estate professionals have watched in awe ( and disbelief ) at the scale of many of these initial projects .
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