附表 3
EXHIBIT 3
1980-2016
最低收益率=最大损失
Minimum Return = Maximum Loss
5年平均值
5-Year Avg
10年平均值
10-Year Avg
15年平均值
20年平均值
15-Year Avg
20-Year Avg
30年平均值
25-Year Avg
35年平均值
30-Year Avg
5.00
0
-5.00
-4.39
-15.00
-16.86
-25.00
-35.00
-34.80
-37.00
-45.00
债券 房地产NCREIF 罗素2000 标普500 纳斯达克
Bond S&P
INV Gr Corp Real Estate
NCREIF Russell 2000 S&P 500 NASDAQ
需要的增长率
Needed Increase
年数——收回损失
Years –– Recover
债券 房地产NCREIF 罗素2000 标普500 纳斯达克
Bonded S&P INV Gr Corp Real Estate NCREIF Russell 2000 S&P 500 NASDAQ
4.59% 20.28% 53.37% 58.73% 68.18%
0.67 2.48 4.96 5.07 5.23
代品的损失收回时间均在五年以上。所以，房地产的
本金收回下行风险低于股票。此外，切记本分析并未
考虑在本金收回期间投资者从其投资组合中取出任
何资金的情况。
本分析表明，过去35年中，即四个经济周期中，收益
性房地产资产类别的表现不同于股票和债券资产类
别。房地产具有“优于债券的收益”和“不同于股票的
增值”，使其具有不同的、更加稳定和更加积极的收益
特征，从而可能会提高投资者组合多样性和收益率。
房地产随经济发展趋势而变化，经济学家目前预测今
后四年经济将会保持稳步增长，这预示着房地产和股
票投资前景向好，但是债券前景不妙，因为利率预计
将会上升。
格兰·穆勒
格兰·穆勒先生是Black Greek Group公司房地产
投资战略策划师、丹佛大学房地产学教授和哈佛
大学客座教授。他在房地产领域具有超过40年的
从业经验，同时在房地产资金市场、房地产市场周
期、投资组合、多元化和投资战略领域有着32年的研究建树，发表
了100篇专题文章，获得了10项大奖。穆勒先生还是美国国家房地
产投资信托基金协会投资顾问委员会成员。
WWW.THECHINAINVESTOR.COM
-40.54
bond loss in the last 35 years. Real estate recovery is in-
between at 2.5 years, but this recovery time is half of all the
public stock alternatives which are all over 5 years. Thus,
direct real estate exhibited less downside risk recovery of
principal than stocks. Also remember that this analysis
does not consider an investor taking any money out of
their portfolio during the principal recovery time period.
This analysis shows that the income producing real estate
asset class has performed differently than the stock and
bond asset classes over the past 35 years, which included
four economic cycles. Real estate exhibits “better than
bond-like income” and “not quite stock-like appreciation”
giving it different, more consistent and more positive
return characteristics that can potentially improve investors
portfolio diversification and return profiles. Real estate does
follow the economy, and current economist predictions of
four more years of moderate economic growth bode well
for both real estate and stock investments, but poorly for
bonds, as interest rates are expected to rise.
Glenn R. Mueller
Glenn Mueller is the real estate investment strategist for Black
Creek Group, real estate professor at University of Denver and
visiting professor at Harvard University. He has more than 40 years
of real estate industry experience, including 32 years of research
experience in real estate capital markets, real estate market cycles,
portfolio, diversification and investment strategies with 100 published
articles and 10 awards. Mueller is an Investment Advisory committee
member of the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts.
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