因退出的不可预测性产生的复归价值问题, 认为与入 账回报率相比, 退出回报率将会或应该更低 / 受到压 制 。 利益相关者, 如经纪人 、 银行和酒店运营商应该 正面解决此等错误观念和问题 。 投资者通常会认为酒 店提供稳定的现金流和收益, 所以是低风险投资 。 如 果投资者未充分认识到因宏观经济周期 、 人口特征变 化 、 供求动态变化 、 经营者改变和改名造成的几乎不 可避免的波动性, 投资者可能会低估风险 。
投资者高估风险的情况同样也很常见 。 这一点体现在 买方经常要求采取风险减轻或绩效促进措施, 如优先 收益率 、 履约担保 、 减税和回购安排等等 。 此外, 投资 者还会与酒店运营商协商在酒店管理合同中增加额 外的制衡条款, 这种情况也相当常见 。 例如, 一些买 方甚至会提倡预算超支惩罚条款, 认为严格控制运营 活动意味着更有效地减轻风险 。 有时, 由于买方按照 正常行业标准要求过多的自我保护机制, 可能会造成 交易流程延迟, 甚至陷入僵局 。 很多投资者仅仅将回 报率视为或用作一种收益指标, 而非一种风险衡量指 标 。 因此, 他们通常将回报率作为门槛收益率 。 例如, 那些在初步评估中要求 6 % 的初始收益率的投资者可 能会接受回报率为 8 % 的交易 。 同时, 投资者很容易因 回报率低而失去兴趣, 例如, 全球门户城市中的投资 者认为这些热门市场应该提供更高的收益率, 但是却 忽视了这些市场风险最低 、 价格哄抬和增长潜力可能 较低的事实 。
虽然期望得到更高的回报率, 买方很少会将此等回报 率与更高风险联系起来 。 所以, 最好从任何交易开始 时明确说明回报率和风险情况, 尤其是在目前回报率 接近历史低水平的情况下, 更应明确说明, 这一点很 重要 。 相当多的中国投资者仍然对回报率存在误解, 回报率与任一特定酒店的投资回报率或净营业收入 无关, 是由市场具体因素决定的, 包括产品类型 、 地 段 、 信贷可得性 、 通胀和收益曲线 。
由于酒店面临着经营状况风险和房地产市场风险, 而 且没有标准化和直截了当的风险衡量指标, 使得中国 投资者很难有效评估风险 。 外酒店投资交易需要大量 繁琐的工作, 作为“ 海外投资” 宏观趋势的一个重要组 成部分, 人们普遍认为这一热潮会继续下去 。 我们对 投资者越了解, 交易成功的可能性便越高 。 such as brokers, banks and hotel operators should address such misconceptions and concerns head on. It is common for the investors to believe that hotels offer stable cash flows and income, and therefore are low-risk investments. Not fully aware of the almost unavoidable volatility caused by macroeconomic cycles, demographic shift, supply demand dynamics, operator change, and reflagging, the investors are likely to underestimate risks.
It is equally common for them to overestimate risks. This is evidenced by frequent requests from buyers for risk mitigators or performance enhancers such as preferred returns, performance guarantee, tax abatements and buyback arrangement to name a few. It is also quite usual for an investor to negotiate with hotel operators about adding extra checks and balances in the hotel management contract. For example, some buyers would even push for penalty clauses for budget overrun, believing stringent control over operations means better risk mitigation. Sometimes such buyers can cause delay or even an impasse in the deal process by requesting too many selfprotection mechanisms by normal industry standards.
Many investors treat or use cap rate only as a return metric but not as a risk measure. As such they often use cap rate as a return hurdle. For example, those who require a 6 percent initial yield in preliminary assessment would probably accept a deal offered at 8 percent cap rate. At the same time, the investors are easily underwhelmed by low cap rates, for example those in global gateway cities, reckoning that such hot markets should offer higher returns yet missing the fact that these markets have lowest risks. While expecting higher cap rates, buyers rarely associate such rates with higher risks. Therefore, it is vital to have good storylines on cap rates and risks from the outset of any deal, especially currently when hotel cap rates are at historical low. Cap rate, which is Independent of the ROI or net operating income of any specific hotel, and is market dictated by product type, location, inflation, and yield curves, remains a much misunderstood concept to a fair number of Chinese investors.
The fact that hotels are exposed to both business risk and real estate market risk, and that there are no standardized and straightforward risk measures, makes it hard for Chinese investors to evaluate risks effectively. Even though outbound hotel deals are strenuous endeavors, as a significant component of the larger macro trend of investing overseas, this wave is widely believed to continue. The better we know the investors, the higher the probability of deal success will be.
秦涵栩
秦涵栩先生是 IHG 全球公司金融企业并购部高级 总 监, 在 投 资 、 商 业 开发 和 公 司 战 略 方 面 有 着 1 5 年 的从业经验 。 他早年曾从事买方投资组合分析方 面的工作, 在美国和中国的投资银行均担任过多 项职位 。 近年来, 他专注于公司内部工作, 处理种 类繁多的跨境交易事宜 。 他在与中国境外投资者合作方面有着广 泛的经验 。
Henry Qin
Henry Qin is a senior director, global corporate finance mergers & acquisitions at IHG. He has over 15 years of experience in investments, business development and corporate strategy. Starting as a portfolio analyst on the buy side, he assumed various roles with investment banks in the U. S. and China. In recent years, he has been working in house and is involved in a variety of cross-border transactions. He deals extensively with Chinese outbound investors.
53 THE CHINA INVESTOR