2016 年, 德国是欧洲最大 的房地产交易市场, 投资 额达到 654 亿美元 。
反映这一变化的一项重要事件是摩根士丹利于 2016 年 10 月以 12 亿美元的价格代表中国投资有限责任公司( CIC) 买下 16,000 套住宅公寓 。 此项德国境内的超大额 投资组合交易也有助于带动交易量上升 。
交易数量统计数据显示, 中国大陆和香港对荷兰和中 东欧的投资也在加速增长, 过去三年中, 仅捷克共和国 一个国家吸引的投资额就将近 5 亿美元 。 这一趋势反映 了脱欧投票产生的不确定性影响, 中国投资者对欧洲 各个市场熟悉度逐渐增加 。 developers and global institutions. In London alone, they spent $ 5.9 billion in the last 12 months on deals such as the Cheesegrater, known as the Leadernhall Building, or Walkie Talkie at 20 Fenchurch Street. Next to London, Germany is Europe’ s brightest performer, with real estate demand growing to overtake the U. K. In 2016, Germany was Europe’ s largest real estate transactions market when investment reached $ 65.4 billion. Crossborder activity grew to a 47 percent share and investor confidence may increase because Germany should benefit from a European safe haven perception shift from the U. K., underlined when Morgan Stanley bought 16,000 residential units on behalf of China Investment Corporation( CIC) at $ 1.2 billion in October of 2016.
This exceptionally large portfolio transaction in Germany also helped drive volumes higher. A deal count shows Chinese and Hong Kong investments in the Netherlands and the Central Eastern Europe have also accelerated, with the Czech Republic alone attracting close to half a billion US dollars in the last three years. This trend underlines the uncertainty impact of the Brexit vote and a growing Chinese familiarity with markets across Europe.
中国境外投资的未来趋势
中国大陆和香港投资者在进入新市场时通常会面临开 发风险, 但是欧洲所有类型的房产中存在着大量收益 型资产, 这减轻了购置土地和新建房屋的需求, 所以写 字楼和公寓表现优异 。
很难相信中国大陆和香港对全球房地产的投资会中 止, 尽管目前 存 在着 一 些 不 利 因 素 。 投 资 将 会 继 续 流 向 境外市场, 实现不断增长的国内财富的多样化配置, 欧 洲房地产市场将会具有很大的吸引力 。 但是, 更加严格 的监管可能会损害投资信心, 逐年延长项目时间表, 特 别是在如果债务市场也发生不利变化的情况下 。
欧洲房地产市场较成熟, 定价机制完善, 内部交易收益 率变动反映了欧洲主要市场价格水平如何上升至历史 最 高 水平, 而 收 益 可能 仍 受 到 压 制 。 例 如, 2 0 1 7 年 第 2 季 度, 伦敦收益率为 4 %, 巴黎收益率为 4.5 %, 法兰克福 收益率为 5 % 。 只有英国最大的六个城市和阿姆斯特丹 出现了与此趋势相反的收益变化 。
现在, 投资者面临的问题是如何在竞争如此激烈的环 境中平衡投资风险和回报 。
THE FUTURE OF CHINESE OUTBOUND CAPITAL
Chinese and Hong Kong investors have often accepted development risk when entering new markets but a sizable pool of income-producing assets in all property types has mitigated the need to buy land and build in Europe, so in the sectors offices and apartments have outperformed. It is hard to believe Chinese mainland and Hong Kong capital outflows into global real estate might halt, despite today’ s headwinds. Investment still will flow abroad to diversify a deepening pool of domestic wealth and European real estate markets will be a draw. But perhaps more intense regulation could damage investment commitments and extend project timelines year-by-year, especially if debt markets also turn unfavorable.
Investors face a mature and fully priced European real estate market and inward transaction yields movement underline how pricing in Europe’ s main markets has risen to become historically expensive and yields could still compress. For instance, you pay 4 percent yield in London, 4.5 percent in Paris and 5 percent in Frankfurt in Q2 2017. The only move against the trend has been in the largest six U. K. cities and Amsterdam. Now, investors face the problem of how to balance risk and reward in such a competitive environment.
文章内容根据截至 7 月 18 日已公开的信息撰写 。 Article is based on information available as of July 18.
佩特拉 · 布拉斯高娃
布拉斯高娃女士于 2015 年加入 Real Capital Analytics( RCA) 公司, 现任 RCA 亚太地区分析 服务部战略发展主管 。 她在房地产行业具有 14 年 的从业经验 。 此前她曾作为研究员就职于新加坡 CBRE, 负责仲量联行 、 King Sturge 和高力国际 的欧洲市场 。 她于捷克共和国布拉格大学获得学士学位, 并于英国 雷丁大学获得房地产投资和金融硕士学位 。
Petra Blazkova
Petra Blazkova joined Real Capital Analytics in 2015 where she oversees the strategic development of RCA’ s analytic services in Asia Pacific. She has 14 years of real estate experience. She previously worked at CBRE in Singapore and as a researcher covering European markets for JLL, King Sturge and Colliers International. She has a Bachelor’ s degree from University of Prague, Czech Republic, and a Master’ s Degree in Real Estate Investment and Finance from the University of Reading in U. K.
39 THE CHINA INVESTOR