“ 中国国有企业仍在买入 , 投资总额 ( 2017 年 ) 可能会上 升 ( 高于 2016 年 ),” Scissors 说道 。
此外 , Akesson 也认为投资呈上升趋势 。
“ 尽管管控加强 、 大额交易放缓 , 我们预期 , 投资会继 续 ,” 他说道 ,“ 由于近期资本管制措施 , 人民币小幅走 强 , 然而 , 对人民币贬值的担忧仍然存在 。 此外 , 国内 市场的波动性也使得投资者寻求合适的境外投资 ” 。 总部位于上海的 DLA Piper LLP 管理合伙人 Li Qiang 说 道 , 2017 年下半年 , 中国投资可能会有所回升 。
“ 我认为中国投资将有所恢复 , 但不会达到 2016 年的水 平 ,” 他说道 ,“ 我认为中国投资者将会与 2016 年一样 , 积极走出去购买海外房地产 。 ”
2017 年最近的一项大额投资是中国投资有限责任公司 于 6 月份用 140 亿美元以私募股权形式购置欧洲仓储公 司 Logicor 房地产 。 根据路透社报道 , 这是欧洲记录在 案的最大的一笔私募股权交易 。
此外 , 资本限制还对投资者可以选择的投资行业产生 了影响 。 尽管今年第一季度所有行业的投资活动有所 减 少 , 基 础 材 料 、 能 源 和 公 用 事业 设 施 一直 是 最 具 弹 性 的行业之一 。
根据荣鼎咨询报告 , 自 1 月份以来 , 该行业中最大的 12 笔交易中的 5 笔交易的收购方为国有企业 , 包括国家电 网 、 中国石化 、 三峡 、 山东黄金和兖州煤业 。 另一个一 直保持强劲的分支是电信 、 传媒和计算机行业 , 但交易 方多为私有公司 , 且交易金额较小 。
2016 年 , 中国的大部分投 资进入了欧洲 ( 604 亿美元 ) 和美国 ( 555 亿美元 ) 。
虽然存在诸多不确定性 , 中国外国直接投资仍然表现 出强劲势头 。
“ 我认为中国资本会继续在全球范围内进行投资 , 特别 是在美国 ,” Stratford Land 首席风险官 Mark Drumm 说道 ,“ 由于中国投资者正在试图将其持有的资产在全 球各个市场进行多样化配置 , 我相信中国资本将会继 续是一个重大的投资资金来源 。 ”
THE OUTLOOK FOR 2017
Following Chinese regulators ’ capital control changes , the number of outbound mergers and acquisitions by Chinese companies fell by 20 percent in the first six months of 2017 compared to the same period in 2016 , the Rhodium Group reports . AEI figures peg outbound investment at $ 97.1 billion from January to June 2017 . Chinese investment in the United States decreased almost 50 percent during this time versus the first half of 2016 , despite hitting $ 17 billion and totaling more than $ 130 billion since 2011 , according to AEI . Scissors , who serves concurrently as chief economist of the China Beige Book , sees fewer large investment deals in the second half of 2017 given the Chinese government ’ s recent actions to discourage investment by private firms .
“ Chinese state enterprises are still buying , and the total value of investment ( for 2017 ) may rise ( above 2016 ),” Scissors said . Akesson also sees the trend increasing .
“ Despite the tighter controls and slowdown in megadeals , we expect investments to continue ,” he said . “ The Yuan has strengthened slightly due to the recent capital control efforts , however a continued worry about a weaker yuan remains . The volatility in the domestic markets also contributes to investors seeking suitable investments abroad .” When it comes to the second half of 2017 , Chinese investment may pick up , said Li Qiang , Managing Partner of Shanghai-based DLA Piper LLP .
“ I think there will be a recovery but it will not get to the 2016 level ,” he said . “ I think Chinese investors will be going out to buy overseas real estate as actively as they did in 2016 .” One recent large investment that will boost the numbers for 2017 is China Investment Corporation ’ s $ 14 billion private equity real estate acquisition of European warehouse firm Logicor in June . It is pegged as the biggest private equity deal in Europe on record , according to Reuters . The capital outflow changes have also impacted what sectors investors select to put their money in . Even though activity decreased across all sectors in the first quarter of this year , Basic materials , Energy and Utilities has been one of the most resilient sectors .
Five out of the top 12 deals since January have stateowned acquirers in this sector , including State Grid , Sinopec , Three Gorges , Shandong Gold and Yancoal , according to the Rhodium Group . Another sector that has stayed strong is Telecom , Media and Computing , however deals have come from more private firms closing smaller transactions . While many uncertainties remain , foreign direct investment out of China still shows strength .
“ I believe that Chinese capital has continued to invest globally and particularly in the U . S .,” said Mark Drumm , Chief Risk Officer with Stratford Land . “ I believe that it will continue to be a significant source as investors within China are trying to diversify their holdings across global markets .”
WWW . THECHINAINVESTOR . COM 10